The last two years saw a significant increase in the number of attacks against US forces in Syria and that trend has already continued in 2023.
Two US military bases were hit multiple times in Syria last month, suggesting that there will be no let-up in the targeting of US soldiers.
Unlike the previous attacks that remain unclaimed, Tashkil al-Waritheen, an Iraqi cell directed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, declared its responsibility for the latest offensive against US troops in Al-Tanf on 20 January.
These developments strongly indicate that Washington’s decision not to retaliate against the Iranian-backed militias involved is only leading to further aggression.
The US is believed to have around 900 soldiers deployed in Syria. These troops are focusing on supporting the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces to maintain pressure on the remnants of ISIS and to prevent them from recapturing territory.
However, not all American troops are stationed inside the Kurdish-controlled region. Washington also has a relatively significant military presence in Al-Tanf, which is located on a strategic road connecting Tehran to Lebanon via Iraq and Syria.
Hence, the base is widely seen as part of the larger US strategy to contain Iran’s military reach in the region.
Uptick in attacks
In the two years since President Joe Biden took office, over 230 projectiles, including 170 rockets and 60 drones, were reportedly fired during 79 attacks on positions hosting US troops or contractors in Iraq and Syria.
That is more than one attack a month on average, which is an unprecedented rate in the history of US operations in Syria.
Most of these attacks were carried out against US locations in Deir Ezzor, where operations against ISIS are centred. Despite its importance for Iran, the Al-Tanf base came second.
That is because targeting US positions in the northeast is easier. Al-Tanf’s location in Syria’s Badia desert, which is flat and unpopulated, allows the US to easily spot and eliminate any ground attackers.
To overcome this operational obstacle, anti-American aggressors resorted to using unmanned aerial systems, which requires more technical expertise.
Notably, the drones used in these attacks in Syria are similar to the ones used against US air bases in Iraq.
This strongly indicates that Iranian-backed militias are likely behind the drone incursions in both countries, including the attacks that remain unclaimed.
