How has Iraq’s pragmatic premier choice panned out?

Six months after Iraq formed a new government, some Iraqis say al-Sudani has won their tentative trust but continue to fear Iran’s increasing influence

AFP

Six months after Iraq formed a new government, Iraqis have mixed views on al-Sudani's performance.

How has Iraq’s pragmatic premier choice panned out?

Shelly Kittleson

last update on 23 Apr 2023

Baghdad: “One of the few, very few, not corrupt statesmen around. The guy worked in five ministries and there are not even rumours of him being corrupt,” Yazan al-Jabouri had told this reporter in speaking about Iraq’s current prime minister some weeks before he was sworn in last year.

A flurry of concerns had accompanied the swearing in of former governor of Iraq’s southeastern province Maysan, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, as prime minister in October 2022.

Many feared that, since most of his strongest backers were close to Iran-linked militias, this would lead to armed groups and parties close to them gaining full control over the state with serious repercussions for anyone opposing them.

Shelly Kittleson — Yazan al-Jabouri at his Baghdad home. Sept. 11, 2022.

The month before the government was formed and amid continued political bickering, al-Jabouri had correctly surmised in the interview with this reporter that al-Sudani would soon become head of government despite staunch opposition to his candidature from those backing popular firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.

Al-Sadr’s bloc had received the largest number of seats of any group in the October 2021 election — a vote which had been one of the demands of massive 2019 protests across central and southern Iraq that left hundreds dead and thousands injured.

The 2021 election was nonetheless marred by very low turnout, with many in the country feeling their votes would not matter.

Al-Sadr remains a powerful figure in the country. Observers argue that only he and Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani are able to singlehandedly influence such a large number of the population.

But amid drawn-out, fruitless negotiations and a government void six months into 2022, al-Sadr’s supporters had resigned from parliament in June on his orders.

Two months later, in August 2022, violence erupted in the Green Zone between his supporters at a sit-in near government offices and those of armed groups close to Iran and others. The next day, after dozens had lost their lives, al-Sadr ordered his followers to leave the area immediately to stop the bloodshed — and they did, obediently and en masse.

Despite al-Sadr’s staunch opposition to al-Sudani’s candidature as prime minister, he, thereafter, ceased to stand in the way of it.

Despite al-Sadr's staunch opposition to al-Sudani's candidature as prime minister, he, thereafter, ceased to stand in the way of it.

Iraq had by the autumn of 2022 been left without a new government for over a year following the 10 October 2021 vote. Many Iraqis were deeply concerned about what might happen should the situation continue. Al-Sudani was accepted and sworn in as prime minister on 27 October.

Mixed views

Six months into al-Sudani's government, Iraqis have mixed views. Some say that he has won their very tentative trust. Many Iraqis nonetheless continue to fear an increase in Iranian influence, the building up of wealth and power through corruption, a flawed justice system and a large number of weapons out of state control.

However, some note that al-Sudani appears to be working hard and less susceptible to being swayed by powerful people and groups than they had initially assumed he would be.

Al-Muhandis protégé

Yazan al-Jabouri hails from Iraq's Sunni community and is the son of a well-known politician, as well as himself being engaged in politics as secretary general of the Al-Watan Party.

He is also, significantly, known as the Sunni 'protégé' of Shiite militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who was assassinated alongside Iranian general Qasem Solaimani in January 2020 by a US drone strike near the Baghdad airport.

"It is not like that (for him). He worked as a mayor, then as a governor then as a minister. So, he understands how the state works."

Al-Sudani is from Iraqis who struggled. His father was executed by Saddam. He has lived his whole life in Iraq and Iraqis do not count him as [one of] those outsiders who came on an American tank. He worked as a mayor, then as a governor then as a minister. So, he understands how the state works.

Yazan al-Jabouri

Views from the street

On the ground in Iraq throughout the month of April, Al Majalla spoke to several people about how they felt about the current government.

A 38-year-old Sunni tribal fighter and university graduate from Iraq's Anbar told Al Majalla in April that he now had higher hopes — admittedly dismally low some months back — than before for the current prime minister.

Al-Sudani, the man claimed, seems "serious about economic reforms, has been somewhat successful in controlling the value of the Iraqi dinar and has been able to curb the smuggling of foreign currency."

He added that al-Sudani appeared to be "facing internal problems with his allies because his method sometimes clashes with" what they would want.

A man working within the office of a current member of parliament on the security and defence committee spoke to Al Majalla on the condition that only his initials, HH, be used.

HH claimed the al-Sudani government has regained the "trust of people in the government" and that it had addressed urgent issues concerning community services, "completion of ongoing projects, the sustainability of cash flows for strategic and prioritised projects" while also playing a "significant role" in continuing the previous government's efforts for better relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

HH added that al-Sudani was "very concerned about international relations and collaborations with Nato, [the] EU, and Western powers" since the "government will not progress without international assistance." He claimed that al-Sudani had not complied with demands made by the Iranian government and that this had led to friction with some of his allies.

He also noted that he personally had been "disappointed" by delays in the approval of the budget, issues concerning oil sales revenue and the case of Iraq's internally-displaced people, who "have suffered a lot" and for whom "it is the duty of the government to provide" adequate living conditions.

Saad al-Khalidy, executive director of the Baghdad-based Iraqi Centre for Negotiation Skills and Conflict Management, told Al Majalla that positive points about the new government included that "it is focusing on municipality services."

Additionally, it has hired "thousands in each province as teachers who spent years lecturing for free, took control of the Najaf airport [in the place of] the local government, brought in temporary agreements with the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, and fired the governor of the Diwaniyah province, who was so corrupted and had done nothing for years for the province."

The al-Sudani government has hired thousands in each province as teachers who spent years lecturing for free, took control of the Najaf airport [in the place of] the local government, and brought in temporary agreements with the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

Saad al-Khalidy, Executive Director of the Baghdad-based Iraqi Centre for Negotiation Skills and Conflict Management

Al-Khalidy, who due to his work comes into contact with a large number of people and tribes from different parts of the country, noted that a great deal remains to be done concerning "reform in education, agriculture, and health services" and that he was disappointed that more had not been initiated in these sectors in the first six months of al-Sudani's government.

He also claimed the government had made "no real efforts" to crack down on corruption. He said he was doubtful the government would "be able to deal seriously" with corruption, which Iraqis suffer from greatly.

This reporter had asked al-Jabouri in September whether he thought the Iran-linked Coordination Framework bloc backing al-Sudani was more ethical than other political factions and that this was why he too was supporting the candidature.

"No," he had said forcefully. "I think that al-Sudani is more ethical."

Broken system

"We all understand that the system is broken. And corrupt. It is inefficient," he had stressed. "And we have two choices: either we bring down the system, or we try to fix it. If we bring down the system this means mayhem, chaos. So, people with weapons would take over."

We all understand that the system is broken. And corrupt. It is inefficient," he had stressed. "And we have two choices: either we bring down the system, or we try to fix it. If we bring down the system this means mayhem, chaos.

Yazan al-Jabouri

Multiple Iraqis who had been willing to be quoted in articles in previous months and years had however become more hesitant to speak openly in April.

Some said that they could talk about minority rights — noting that Yazidi and Christian armed factions are close to Iranian-linked factions, for example, and therefore discussing minority rights was "widely approved of" — but nothing concerning "the militias" or Iran.

Several said there are greater legal and other risks involved now than there were under the previous government and claimed self-censorship had become more common as a result. European officials in Iraq meanwhile stated in not-for-attribution conversations that they were concerned about shrinking space for civil society under the current government.

Al-Jabouri had stressed in the September interview that greater pragmatism was necessary for Iraq to avoid a worse possible fate.

"For us as a weakened community, after what IS (the Islamic State) did to us, our protection is the state. And if the state collapses…," al-Jabouri had said in relation to both Iraq and the Sunni community especially, his voice trailing off.

"We are very fragile," he concluded.

"So, a better solution is to fix the system. And I think that al-Sudani is capable of fixing the system. Or at least putting it on the right track to be fixed."

+ / -