Erdoğan wins historic run-off election in Turkey extending his two-decade rule

On the other hand, his die-hard loyalists did not seem to mind corruption allegations.

Erdoğan's and AKP used their privileges of the presidency and state resources to carry out successful media and propaganda campaigns. Coupled with their absolute influence and control over most of the press in Turkey, this naturally contributed to their success.

Failure to win over nationalist voters

On the Nation Alliance side, Kılıçdaroğlu managed an active campaign and went on the offensive but he was not able to break the unity of Erdoğan supporters or attract nationalist/ conservative voters from within his ranks.

Erdoğan and People's Alliance pressed on the point that Kılıçdaroğlu and CHP were collaborating with the People's Democratic Party (HDP) and the terror organisation PKK. They claimed that, if elected, Kılıçdaroğlu would release PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan and HDP co-chair Selahattin Demirtaş.

Read more: The story behind Abdullah Öcalan's high-profile exit from Syria

Kılıçdaroğlu dismissed the allegations, calling them absurd lies. He told the electorate that it was the AKP who had dealings with the HDP and PKK.

He said videos circulating on social media about PKK members chanting supportive slogans were fabrication (and they were fabrication indeed, as Erdoğan himself admitted a few days ago).

However, Kılıçdaroğlu was not able undo the damage and failed to win over nationalist voters.

A strange atmosphere

But it is a strange and somehow surreal political atmosphere.

The MHP, the champion of Turkish nationalism in Turkey, is in the same alliance as Hüdapar — a radical İslamist Kurdish-dominated party, alleged to be a sort of political wing or relative of Hezbollah in Turkey, which is responsible for ideologically-motivated assassinations.

The party is being represented in the parliament, for the first time in history, with four deputies who have been elected from AKP's list. It is reported that deputies of Hüdapar have problems with taking the traditional oath at the opening of the parliament, because deputies basically swear allegiance to the "Turkish Nation".

Normally, MHP should be furious, but they have kept silent.

Ahead of the second round, Erdoğan concentrated on security issues and accused Kılıçdaroğlu of getting support from the PKK.

Kılıçdaroğlu, on the other hand, addressed nationalism- related issues much more. He emphasised frequently the centrality of keeping Turkey safe and sending back illegal immigrants — Syrians, Afghans and others. 

Sinan Ogan, the presidential candidate of the Ata Alliance in the first round, emerged as a kingmaker with 5.28% of the vote (2,796,613 votes). The big question was who he would support in the second round.

Ogan sided with Erdoğan, but his decision was a personal preference. Only a small percentage of his voter base is expected to cast their ballot for Erdoğan.

Read more: Turkey heads for run-off election with Ogan the likely kingmaker

The Ata Alliance, which supported Ogan as the presidential candidate, consisted of five political parties, with the Victory Party (ZP) being its backbone and the strongest.

In contrast to Ogan's preference for Erdoğan, ZP and other components of the alliance declared their support for Kılıçdaroğlu.

They signed a protocol consisting of seven articles which cover points pertaining to Turkey's national unity and integrity, combating terrorism, protecting the borders against the inflow of refugees and repatriation of Syrians.

Refugee issue returns to centre stage

The subject of Syrian refugees in Turkey has been a contentious issue for some time but it had been somehow overshadowed in the first election round. Now, with nationalism on the rise and ZP on the stage, it became a central issue again.

Read more: Syrian refugees in Turkey express worry ahead of crucial vote

Political parties may have different solutions and nuances but almost all are in agreement that Syrians should go back and the borders of Turkey should be sealed so as not to face an influx of outsiders once again. All parties, including the ZP, emphasise that everything should be done in accordance with international law.

Kılıçdaroğlu and the ZP

The agreement between Kılıçdaroğlu and ZP is significant in terms of numbers and the psychological impact in his favour and the Millet Alliance.

The question that remained was how the Kurdish or rather electorate of the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) would react to the agreement signed between Kılıçdaroğlu and ultra-nationalists.

HDP ran in the elections as Green Left Party (YSP) to avoid a possible ban or closure. HDP's election performance lagged behind expectations but it was still able to receive 4.803.218 votes (8.86%) and send 61 deputies to the parliament. HDP did not nominate a candidate for president and its voters enthusiastically cast their ballots for Kılıçdaroğlu.

Co-Chairs of HDP held a press conference on Thursday. They stated, "Erdoğan is never an option for us. The only option is to change him and the power he represents. We will all go to the polls and together we will change the one-man regime." 

This demonstrated their clear support for Kılıçdaroğlu.

Expectations and wildcards

For various reasons, 8.3 million eligible voters did not cast their ballot in the first round. No one was certain which candidate would benefit from this group, whose votes had the potential to turn the election in either candidate's favour.

Presidential candidate Sinan Ogan received 2.7 million votes in the first round and was eliminated. The majority of his backers were expected to vote for Kılıçdaroğlu.

An unknown number of İYİP supporters were said to have refrained from voting for Kılıçdaroğlu in the first round. 

Parliament composition limits drastic change

The composition of the new parliament with 15 parties and 600 deputies does not allow any party or alliance to move forward with its policies as it wishes.

For example, constitutional change is an important issue for the new parliament but with the existing numbers, no one party or alliance has the required two-thirds of the deputies (400) to amend the constitution or three-fifths (360) of the deputies to take the proposed amendments to referendum.

Erdoğan supporters argued that if Kılıçdaroğlu wins, he could not rule properly as the People's Alliance holds the majority of the seats in the 600-seat parliament with 322 deputies, 267 of which are from AKP.

The opposition sees no problem in governance and argued that with the People's Alliance majority in the parliament, electing Kılıçdaroğlu as president would bring a healthy system of checks and balances and uphold democracy.  

They argue that when Erdoğan has full authority as president and his AKP dominates the parliament, checks and balances are no longer and there is almost no accountability.

In the election of 2023, national security issues have dominated the political stage and the results of the first round indicate that Kılıçdaroğlu failed to convince nationalist/conservative crowds that he would do better than Erdoğan in this field.

The campaign of the People's Alliance bore fruit in creating a perception that HDP supported Kılıçdaroğlu, which undermined his otherwise quite successful campaign.

The economy is a ticking time bomb. Its impact is felt in the daily lives of all citizens. AKP voters and supporters of the People's Alliance are also under strain and complain about the inflation and cost of living. But somehow, their complaints have not changed their voting preference.

In the run-up to the second round, Kılıçdaroğlu reviewed his policies and made adjustments as necessary. He placed more emphasis on national security issues.

Kılıçdaroğlu has managed to garner the support of the Ata Alliance and the so-called ultra-nationalists. This achievement has probably made an impression on the wider nationalist crowd, some of which might have been inclined to vote for Kılıçdaroğlu in the second round.

Based on the results of the first round, mathematically, Erdoğan had the better chance of winning in the second round. But ultimately, the pool of around 10 million people, decided the winner.