Turkish ballot boxes and the Syrian Fund

Arab interest, particularly Syria

Arabs, both officials and citizens, have additional reasons to be interested in the Turkish elections, particularly concerning the future of political Islam and the consequences of Turkish influence in the region.

Read more: Is Turkey's political Islam experiment coming to an end?

Erdogan's government has been actively involved in multiple Arab countries and crises through military and non-military means, with its engagement in Syria being the most notable and impactful.

In Syria, various warring factions, Islamist groups, and the Turkish army control territories in the northern strip, which constitutes approximately 10 percent of Syria's total land area of 185,000 square kilometres. This effectively grants them control over an area roughly twice the size of Lebanon.

There is a perception that Erdogan's government is the driving force behind this policy. Therefore, the outcome of the Turkish elections holds significant implications for the future of Turkish influence in northern Syria.

A defeat for Erdogan could potentially signal a retreat of Turkish influence, while a victory would likely result in the continuation of Turkish-backed protection and temporary residency for around 3.7 million Syrian refugees in Turkey.

For officials in Damascus and the Kurds in Qamishli, their hope lies in Erdogan's defeat against his competitor Kilicdaroglu in the second round of the elections.

Consequently, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has refrained from meeting Erdogan prior to the elections, despite significant pressure from Russian President Vladimir Putin to arrange a summit between them.

Putin's aim is to address the pressing issue of Syrian refugees, prevent it from being used against Erdogan and his party, and potentially weaken the opposition and Kilicdaroglu's stance.

It is worth noting that one of the reasons behind Arab countries' normalisation efforts with Damascus is to bolster al-Assad's position against Turkish and Iranian influences within the framework of the quadrilateral normalisation involving Moscow, Tehran, Ankara, and Damascus.

Arab countries believe that reinforcing the Syrian state against these two powers creates a geographical barrier that hinders their expansion from the north and east towards the Arab south.

Indeed, the interest in the "Syrian Fund" has grown in parallel with the monitoring of Turkish elections among Arab nations. This fund, despite being unrelated to the voting process, elections, or the implementation of UN Resolution 2254, was recently established by the Syrian president with the aim of "supporting those affected by the earthquake" that occurred in Syria and Turkey in February.

It is worth noting that there are existing US and European sanctions that impede the funding of Syria's reconstruction until significant progress is made in the political process.

However, exceptions have been made by the US administration and the European Union to finance aid specifically designated for earthquake-related damages.

Read more: Syrian reconstruction will only come from Syrian realism

Nevertheless, the broader sanctions and the implementation of the Caesar Act have hindered the translation of Arab normalisation efforts into funds that contribute to the reconstruction of essential infrastructure such as schools, hospitals, and power stations.

The "Syrian Fund" prescribes the situation and presents a potential solution and response to this challenge. Its primary objective is to provide a financial channel through which Arab funds can flow and support the reconstruction process in Syria.

Some Arab countries have already made substantial donations, with millions of dollars contributed, while others have promised further financial assistance.

Consequently, the "Syrian Fund" has garnered increased attention among Arab nations, often surpassing or equaling the focus on monitoring the Turkish ballot boxes.