Politics

Sudan’s ‘three-storey’ history of conflict shows why it can’t build peace

The curse of conflict has ancient roots in a troubled country once again denied the blessings of its own natural riches and diversity

AFP

Smoke billows above buildings behind a mosque during fighting between the forces of two rival Sudanese generals in Khartoum, on May 5, 2023.

Sudan’s ‘three-storey’ history of conflict shows why it can’t build peace

Houssam Itani

last update on 06 May 2023

Sudan’s current conflict can be seen as a direct consequence of the failure of the nation’s previous agreements seeking peace and democratic transition.

The most recent of these – the Framework Agreement – was signed last December. It had several goals. The current outbreak of violence between the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) suggests that they are impossible to achieve due to the current balance of power between the sides, defines by their network of alliances and external relations.

The foundations of a three-storey story

The history of conflict in Sudan can be likened to a three-storey building, and the story of it can be told via a look at the characteristics of each floor.

But first, see how this unstable edifice is constructed upon a foundation of treaties and agreements between warring parties that allied, fought, and eventually reconciled.

These conflicts were widespread, spanning from the secession of the south in 2011 to regions including Darfur, South Kordofan, the Blue Nile, and Abyei.

The root causes of each conflict varied, ranging from objections to political tyranny and ethnic discrimination to the misallocation of national wealth within a country considered one of the richest in agricultural and natural resources, including minerals and oil.

Another significant foundational factor was the attempt by former President Jaafar Nimeiri to embed Islam as the source of national law in a country with a Christian and animist majority in the south.

Reuters — Sudan's Sovereign Council Chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in Khartoum, December 4, 2021.

First floor: Naivasha Conventions

The first floor of the Sudanese building came from the fierce war that erupted in southern Sudan during two periods, from 1955 to 1972 and then again from 1983 to 2004.

This prolonged conflict resulted in enormous human losses, famines, and immense suffering for Sudanese people in both the north and south.

However, its greatest significance was something that northern Sudanese politicians of all affiliations denied: that southern Sudan could not be part of a unified state in which people of Arab descent held center stage.

It took millions of victims, six decades and the erosion of the entire structure of the Sudanese state for northern politicians to finally recognise that the south was ethnically, religiously, and culturally distinct from the north.

It took millions of victims, six decades and the erosion of the entire structure of the Sudanese state for northern politicians to finally recognise that the south was ethnically, religiously, and culturally distinct from the north.

Following South Sudan's independence, the country fell into another war from 2013 to 2020, this time between President Salva Kiir and his deputy/opponent Riek Machar. Although the conflict had tribal dimensions between the Dinka and the Nuer, it was essentially political.

The Naivasha agreement in Kenya – between the government of former President Omar al-Bashir and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement led by John Garang – paved the way for South Sudan's independence by holding a referendum in all parts of Sudan after a period of self-rule. The vote took place in 2011, just as a new war broke out in South Kordofan and Blue Nile due to a dispute over holding elections in these two states.

Ironically, the war in the south may not have ended if Sudan had not been exhausted by a second war in Darfur between tribes of Arab origin and the Fur. Additionally, US sanctions were imposed after Washington designated Sudan as a state sponsor of terrorism, and forces loyal to the Khartoum government committed atrocities in Darfur.

AFP — Sudanese Army soldiers walk near tanks stationed on a street in southern Khartoum, on May 6, 2023.

Second floor: the peace agreement with the armed factions

The peace agreement signed in August 2020 came amid an atmosphere of optimism in Sudan following the fall of Al-Bashir's regime and the beginning of a peaceful transition to civil rule.

It is now undermined by the renewed clashes between the army and the RSF, even after the broad support it once achieved.

The Sudanese government and armed factions in South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and Darfur signed that were allied under the Sudanese Revolutionary Front signed the agreement. This coalition was formed to support the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North in its conflict with Khartoum that began in 2011.

The Juba Agreement, signed in the capital of South Sudan, granted three seats in the Sovereignty Council and five ministerial portfolios in the Council of Ministers to the leaders of the armed factions that are members of the agreement.

It also provides for a three-year transitional period. Meanwhile, the economic crisis in the north prompted the Transitional Council to search for solutions to ease tensions in Blue Nile and South Kordofan.

The agreement was always fragile. Its creation was complex, involving a diverse range of tribal and ethnic groups. Its fate now depends on the outcome of the current battles between the two powers in the north, and whatever direction is then taken by the victor.

The agreement was always fragile. Its creation was complex, involving a diverse range of tribal and ethnic groups. Its fate now depends on the outcome of the current battles between the two powers in the north, and whatever direction is then taken by the victor.

Third floor: post-Bashir agreements

After the military ousted President Omar al-Bashir in response to widespread popular protests against him, the Forces of Freedom and Change movement agreed with the regular army and the RSF to share power within a transitional sovereign council.

However, several obstacles have hindered progress towards a democratic future, despite the initial optimism that followed the ousting of Al-Bashir's dictatorship and his politically affiliated Islamic group, which had been in power since his coup in 1989.

One of is the significant economic interests developed by the military, a feature common to many third-world countries.

In Sudan, a group of high-ranking officers and associated businessmen have formed an elite class with established interests and connections. They have resisted change, offering it only amid substantial pressure from the exhausted masses, who had fought for years to overthrow Al-Bashir.

Factions of Freedom and Change

At the same time, factions within the Forces of Freedom and Change movement stoked internal competition within it, a lack of unity making it more difficult to achieve progress toward democracy.

The former regime also manipulated tribal forces to create the Janjaweed militia groups, which later evolved into the RSF. This group was initially formed to combat armed opposition in Darfur. Still, it gained power and control over vital economic sectors, formed alliances with external powers and exacerbated the already complex situation in Sudan, setting up yet more conflicting interests in the country.

Attempts to integrate militias – including the RSF – into the regular armed forces may have been the straw that broke the camel's back for the Sudanese state. But the situation would not have escalated to this point if the national power struggle was not already crowded with regional, tribal, ethnic, and sectarian factions.

Reuters

With our survey of the three-storey building of the current conflict made, our attention turns to the range of ethnic, social and regional differences. This is national mosaic, made up of different identities and characteristics, which often overlap. It reveals a complex picture within this vast, diverse and troubled country.

This is national mosaic, made up of different identities and characteristics, which often overlap. It reveals a complex picture within this vast, diverse and troubled country.

The Arabs and the Beja

There are traditional forces deeply rooted in Sudanese society, which identify with Arab tribes that came to the country in a series of waves of migration.

The first is said to have begun in the early years of the righteous caliphate and continued until the 12th century. It included many Arab tribes from Najd, the Hijaz, and the Ashraf, in addition to the later arrival of groups from the Beni Hilal and Beni Slim tribes.

There are also the Beja tribes in eastern Sudan near the Red Sea coasts, who are among the region's ancient inhabitants and have their language, traditions, and culture.

The Mahdist and Khatmiyya Sufi Orders played a prominent role in Sudanese politics.

The Arabs and Beja expressed their political views through Sufi orders, especially the Mahdist and Khatmiyya orders, which fought against the British occupation and British-Egyptian rule.

The two orders formed two political parties: The Umma Party represented the Mahdist order, while the Union Party was founded to carry the viewpoint of the Khatmiyya order. The two occupied an important place in public life in Sudan.

The Mahdist order dates back to Muhammad Ahmad al-Mahdi, who fought against the British occupation. His family has maintained an important position in Sudanese politics. Sadiq al-Mahdi was a prominent leader of the Mahdist order who served as prime minister twice and was overthrown by two military coups.

Darfur

In the far west of Sudan lies the land of the Fur people – known as Darfur – which established a sultanate and maintained a degree of independence until the British forces captured its capital, El Fasher, in 1916.

Conflict erupted in 2003 between Khartoum and the Janjaweed groups on one side, and the "Justice and Equality Movement" and the "Sudan Liberation Movement" on the other.

This represents one of the complex chapters in the history of Sudan. The armed factions accused the central authority of practising racial discrimination, while the atrocities committed by the Janjaweed and government forces led to charges of genocide and crimes against humanity against former President Omar al-Bashir by the International Criminal Court.

Some experts consider the conflict in Darfur as one of the first conflicts caused by climate change. The tensions developed between settled farmers of the Fur tribe and nomadic herders belonging to Arabized tribes, which led to violent confrontations over diminishing land, grazing, and water.

Khartoum sided with the pastoral tribes, and the door to fighting was then wide open, including the destruction of villages, rape, and mass killings, as documented by international organisations.

Nuba Mountains

The Nuba Mountains have been a significant part of Sudan's history since the Kush and Pharaonic Egypt eras.

The region is now much smaller than it once was when it used to cover the region from southern Egypt to Kordofan and the Blue Nile. The Nubians have consistently complained of racial discrimination against them and their deprivation of political participation rights.

The Nuba Mountains were a battleground during the Second Sudanese Civil War when the Nuba people sided with the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) in its fight for independence for South Sudan.

After South Sudan gained independence in 2011, the Nuba Mountains became a flashpoint in the ongoing conflict between the regular Sudanese army and the RSF.

The presence of gold in the Nuba Mountains has further complicated the situation. The regular army and the RSF have both been accused of looting gold from the region, while the Nuba people have been denied access to the profits from their natural resources.

Sudan is a complex and contradictory country.

Its rich natural resources and diverse population could be a source of strength, but these potential blessings have created conditions for perpetual fighting.

The RSF and the regular army's descent back into war goes back decades, as the curse of conflict once again builds up and casts a shadow over this ancient and newly troubled land.

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