Read more: Hard-fought changes to Iraqi electoral law overturned
Mounting discontent
The changes to Iraq's electoral law coincide with mounting public discontent in the Shiite-majority southern provinces. These areas are grappling with rising unemployment, the proliferation of militias who control border crossings, service contracts and reconstruction projects, and the deterioration of basic services.
This has translated into political apathy evidenced by the low turnout rate compared to the last elections which were held in October 2021.
In those elections, a new generation of young people emerged, dealing a resounding blow to the political establishment — many of which are aligned with Iran. These voters advocated for better relations with Arab and Western countries and adopting a more balanced approach to relations with Iran and the US.
Hundreds of Iraqis hold banners and shout slogans as they gather for a demonstration demanding justice for demonstrators killed during the 2019 revolt, at the Tahrir Square in Baghdad on October 01, 2021.
The recent moves are seen as an attempt to sideline independent parties who impressively secured 50 out 329 seats in parliament in the last elections.
"Forces that control the political process are always trying to craft systems that work to their benefit and ensure their stay in power," says elections expert Athir Idris.
The old electoral law reinforces sectarian and regional alliances, which Iraqis have been desperately trying to overcome in the past two decades.
The reversal of the electoral law ensures that major political parties maintain their seats even if an elected member resigns, passes away or moves to a new position. It also stipulates that whoever takes the place of that elected member comes from the same electoral list, whereas the previous law allowed the runner-up to replace the outgoing member.
"The tight control of the electoral process undermines the electoral system. It started with closed lists in the first elections, where voters could not select their candidate preferences. Then, the constituency became one electoral district, and eventually, the Sainte-Laguë formula was used to exclude emerging political forces," Idris explained.
A protester lifts a placard bearing a slogan in Arabic which reads "parliament dissolution is our demand" near the Green Zone in the capital Baghdad, on September 9, 2022.
Independents at a disadvantage
Political challengers find it difficult to form a single alliance because of their different leanings, platforms and positions. Additionally, these candidates quite often lack the funds to compete with dominant and often corrupt political parties. In Baghdad, for example, election campaigns are very costly — having to cater to the capital's large population (9 million).
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