Resistance to societal change: Three present-day examples

Natural and economic changes, such as a change of trade routes and the lack of mineral resources during the industrial age (as was the case of the Ottoman Empire), the dominance of radically new methods in agricultural or industrial production and commercial distribution, a long-term drought or the changing of the course of a river which was the vein for an agrarian civilisation, have always been and will remain to be among the factors that bring about regime change, peacefully or via war, from within or outside and whether dominant groups surrender or fight back.

Some political ideologies that emerged, particularly in 19th century Europe, that tried to label historical currents — socialism, nationalism etc. These concepts promised progression and social development.

Definitions explaining the reasons for the decline of particular civilisations and the prosperity of others arose in the 19th and 20th centuries.

The most prominent of them was German philosopher Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel's view of history and his development of the concept of zeitgeist or "the spirit of the age." But this is another topic to discuss.

Presently, there are three regional examples of political systems adopting different approaches to overcome challenges.

The Iranian model

The first is the Iranian model. After 40 years of "revolutionary" rule, social conditions in the country have changed. A new generation has emerged after the fall of the Soviet Union. Old mentalities are being replaced by new ones.

The revolution, in which French philosopher Michel Foucault viewed as an example of global change originating outside of Western centralism, quickly reached a dead end. 

This is because a young urban generation, which constitutes most of the middle class, are no longer convinced of regime promises. They see an untenable situation which prevents them from building a stable future. 

The highly militarised domestic atmosphere, supposedly deployed to 'defend the revolution', raises doubts over the supposed success of this revolution and the extent to which independence from 'arrogant' global forces, can provide what is necessary to meet the needs of citizens.

Popular discontent has surfaced over the years, the most recent of which came after the killing of young Mahsa Amini in September 2022. 

Such outbursts demonstrate the growing disparity between society's desire for development and progress and the regime's stubborn clinging to an outdated mentality that promote the interests of certain segments of society at the expense of the growing numbers of young people seeking greater self-expression and a different lifestyle. 

Despite the current lull after months of popular protests, the needs of this emerging society have yet to be met.

The Turkish model

A different model is developing in Turkey. Despite the existence of political life and periodic elections, Turkey is increasingly restricting individual and public freedoms and rights, as stated by recent Freedom House and Human Rights Watch reports. 

The upcoming elections scheduled for June will be more like a referendum on the system of government, the president's role, and the ruling party's future. Deeply rooted domestic issues, including the Kurds' political and cultural rights, have not seen significant progress for many years. 

The Kurdish issue is being used in political squabbles between dominant Turkish political parties — with some opting to ignore the issue entirely and others advocating for cracking down on those who defend the rights of Kurds.

The Lebanon model

The third model is none other than Lebanon. Contrary to the belief that this small country is committed to the zeitgeist in the Levant, the reality indicates that year after year, the political system loses all ability to adapt to global realities.

The continuous collapse of the state since 2019, and perhaps before that, is an indication of the erosion of the political and economic structures and their shrinking ability to find a place in the global economy — save for money laundering and real estate and rentier speculation.

This reality has led to a political and social stagnation and has prompted a mass exodus of young people searching for better economic opportunities. The diaspora is also becoming the near exclusive source of hard currency revenue needed to operate the country, which has, for decades, relied on funds from abroad.

Much has been reported about Lebanon's exploitation by foreign powers which has exacerbated the decay of the nation. Unfortunately, Lebanon is expected to face more chaos and eventual collapse in the foreseeable future. 

These present-day examples cannot be collectively defined. It remains difficult and costly to choose between responding to the needs of the current times or surrender to stagnation.