[/caption]Vladmir Putin arrived this past week in Beijing to discuss the crisis in Syria which has become a moment to score diplomatic points against the United States as much as it is to preserve Russia’s interests in the Middle East and its lucrative arms deals with Syria, accounting for 10% of its global sales.
The meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a signature achievement of his previous term in office, allowed Putin last Wednesday to present a united front with Beijing in support of the Annan Peace Plan (a Russian and Chinese codeword for supporting the Assad regime) and an opportunity to re-iterate their opposition to outside intervention in Syria, an act that would likely undermine their interests in the region.
On the same day, Hilary Clinton met with Recip Erdogan and the foreign ministers of the “Friends of Syria” in Istanbul to discuss the crisis in Syria. Evoking similar rhetoric as she has employed in the past without offering any new thinking, Clinton condemned the violence and called on Russia and China to put pressure on Bashar al-Assad. Clinton as well clung publicly to the hope that the Annan Peace Plan had some possibility in facilitating Assad’s exit and ending the violence.
But, in all reality, the Annan Plan has failed and has been used by supporters and detractors of Assad alike to consolidate their respective positions without achieving any gain except for inching the country closer to civil war. No matter how well intentioned, the UN monitoring mission and Annan’s diplomacy is, as evidenced by the shelling and massacres on the plains of Hama and around the country, the UN monitors have proved futile and Annan’s words have fallen on deaf ears in Damascus.
Equally so, the supplying of arms to the Free Syrian Army by some members of the “Friends of Syria” has done very little to dislodge Assad’s position and has contributed to the increasingly violent nature of the conflict in Syria that has become all but a civil war in many parts of the country as cities, villages, and sects arm to preserve their local security.
Russia, China, and Iran’s financial and arms support of Assad’s regime has only entrenched the regime. This false sense of security for the Assad regime, as the death toll mounts above 13,000 and the country splits along sectarian lines, will not serve well for these states’ interests in the long-term.
Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov on Saturday even admitted, “The situation in Syria is becoming more alarming. An impression is being created that Syria is on the verge of a full-scale civil conflict.” However, Lavrov emphasized that their opposition to outside intervention is “not because we are protecting Assad and his regime, but because we know that Syria is a complicated multi-confessional state, and because we know that some of those calling for military intervention want to ruin this and turn Syria into a battleground for domination in the Islamic world.” For Moscow, in spite of Lavrov’s own subtle admission that Russia’ strategy is failing, Syria’s ironically too large of strategic battlefield for Moscow to concede to the West.
Showing unity of ranks in Beijing and Istanbul may give a sense of optimism for both sides, but these two summits cannot hide the fact that Syria is slowly falling apart and its ills are spreading to Lebanon and its neighbors as the international community watches as their actions have largely failed. Jordan and Turkey are presently confronted by the logistical nightmare of thousands of refugees fleeing Syria and in Lebanon, sectarian fighting has flared up again in Tripoli, risking the state’s own fragile security.
Russia and China have proposed a new contact group that brings together both supporters and detractors together but these summits have shown how little talk achieves these days. In short of real concrete, co-coordinated steps that facilitates a cessation of violence on all sides and a political dialogue the division in the international community only reinforces the crisis.
If all of Syria’s “friends” can put aside their own interests for a moment, then maybe a peace can be achieved through serious diplomacy, but more empty rhetoric and dueling summits and opposing actions (such as the upcoming meeting of the “Friends of Syria” in Paris in July 6) will only reinforce the civil war enveloping Syria.
