A coordinated attack by an Al-Qaida-linked group and Tuareg rebels was the most serious on Mali's Russian-backed military junta in years. After years of dominance, this puts Moscow on the back foot.
Military strategists have long warned that war should be waged only if those waging it know what they want to achieve. Herein lies a problem: Washington's war aims in Iran are incoherent.
The regional rivals aren't just fighting over freshwater supplies. Cairo sees Addis Ababa's bid for Red Sea access as part of a wider fragmentation strategy.
Quick, in-and-out precision operations that inflict maximum damage with minimum US casualties have long been a favoured tool of US presidents. Is Trump planning one for Iran?
Tehran isn't likely to easily fold if/when Trump attacks. This means that the longer a military confrontation drags out, the more untenable Washington's position becomes.
Some point to his possible links to Mossad through his associate Ghislaine Maxwell, whose father was a known Israeli spy, and assert that he blackmailed powerful figures to exert influence
The convicted sex offender rose from obscurity, brushing shoulders with the worlds elite. His suspicious suicide in August 2019 has left a trail of unanswered questions and conspiracy theories behind.
Trump will be wondering if a military confrontation with Iran would help or hurt his dwindling popularity at home, making his decision to strike one of the riskiest bets of his presidency
The conflict has forced Russia to scale back its global footprint and NATO to boost its defence spending. Meanwhile, China and Middle powers have emerged as key beneficiaries.
The standoff in the Hormuz is not simply a question of whether Tehran can survive economic pressure, but whether Washington can sustain the pressure at an acceptable cost.
The Strait of Hormuz is now poised to become the primary arena of confrontation, with Iran relying on speedboat-driven guerrilla warfare to confront the US navy.
Former regime soldiers are stuck in limbo, as their undocumented status prevents them from working, travelling, and curbs family members' access to education, healthcare and social services