Rising oil prices will boost the Kremlin's coffers as costs over Ukraine mount, but a total defeat of Iran could lead to the deployment of radar stations in the north, near Russia's border

Since October 7, 2023, Israel's systemic unwillingness or inability to plan long-term has pushed it into a state of perpetual war

Until fairly recently, most Americans sided with Israel. These days, most side with the Palestinians. That will eventually influence US foreign policy.

The breakdown of the post-1945 international order has stifled the mechanisms meant to prevent wars from expanding into larger conflagrations

Instead of taking down the Islamic Republic, what the assassinations have done is harden public support and accelerate the regime's militarisation

As US strikes dismantle Iran's regime and Venezuela's leadership, Beijing confronts energy strangulation, chokepoint vulnerability, regime decapitation, and the shattering of Xi's multipolar ambitions

Israel's assassination of the pragmatic and highly influential National Security Chief closes the path to de-escalation

Even as the bombs fly between Hezbollah and the Israeli army, there is suddenly an opportunity to sort out some longstanding problems. If Syria can help, all the better.

Advocates for the US-Israeli special relationship have played a special role

The rushed 2025 rollout raised questions about the government's seriousness. Since then, no meaningful record has been published, fuelling fears that it was just a show.