MAXIMUM DEFIANCE
Last year, the US unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, casting doubt over other signatories' ability to maintain the accord. The agreement established a framework under which Iran would curb its nuclear program in exchange for Western countries dropping paralyzing sanctions. EU member states, including Germany and France, have called on Iran to stick to the deal despite the US withdrawal. The U.S. replaced that pact with a 12-point program aimed at reining in Iran’s aggressive regional behavior - including ending all work on its nuclear and missile programs and cutting off its support to its allies in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon - dismantling its nuclear capacity and modifying the regime in Tehran. But Tehran has continued to steadily erode the deal by taking incremental steps towards violating its commitments.
· In May, Iran announced it would no longer be committed to a 300-kilogram cap on its stockpile of uranium hexafluoride enriched to 3.67 percent in the crucial isotope U-235.
· In June, Iran’s stockpile of low-enriched uranium exceeded the limit set under the agreement.
· In July, Iran breached a cap on the purity of that uranium, enriching it to levels slightly closer to weapons-grade, increasing from 3.67 percent to 4.5 percent. (Enrichment to more than 90 percent is needed for a nuclear weapon.)
· In September, Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, announced that his country was canceling its commitment to a timetable for the resumption of unrestricted nuclear research and development. Iran began using quicker-spinning, more advanced centrifuges than allowed under the JCPOA, potentially shortening the time to produce enough high-enriched uranium needed for a nuclear weapon. Rouhani also canceled the accreditation of an inspector with the International Atomic Energy Agency, which monitors Iranian compliance with the nuclear deal.
The idea is to put pressure on America to end its campaign of “maximum pressure” under which Trump has imposed harsh economic sanctions on Iran, has spoken boldly of ending Iranian aggression and hostility and increased America’s military presence across the Middle East, including basing troops in Saudi Arabia for the first time since the aftermath of September 11, 2001.
Washington says its strategy is designed to force Iran to return to the table to negotiate a new, more sweeping deal that covers Iran’s ballistic missile program and its role in Middle Eastern conflicts. But while the sanctions have crippled the Iranian economy, they haven’t had their desired effect so far. The Iranians are emboldened. They downed an unmanned American aircraft and, according to U.S. intelligence, attacked Saudi Arabian oil installations with impunity.
Iran says it can quickly undo its controversial breaches if the remaining parties of the deal find a way to honor its terms, despite US sanctions. It has also said that it would be willing to negotiate if the sanctions are removed. Some Iranian commentators have even hinted that, without sanctions relief, Iran might leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), in order to regain negotiating power vis-à-vis the U.S.
Nevertheless, the US administration says that its strategy is working, and some analysts seem to agree. They say that sanctions Trump imposed on Iran and its oil have deprived the regime of a substantial amount of money that would have normally been used to fund the country's influence in the region and attack US interests. They believe that Iran lashing out proves that the strategy is working and that ultimately, Iran will have no option but to negotiate as it is left with very few good cards to play in response to Trump’s hard-line policy.
“Iran is playing a high-risk game of brinkmanship because the more Iran increases nuclear enrichment, the more the Pompeo/Netanyahu camp and their supporters can claim that Iran must be stopped military,” Nader Hashemi, director of the Centre for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver told The Independent.
“Iranian leaders have calculated that gradual withdrawal from the terms of the JCPOA will force Europe to come to Tehran’s rescue with sanctions relief,” he added.
MAXIMUM DIPLOMACY
Iran’s maximum resistance strategy is also aimed at pressuring the remaining parties to the deal - particularly France, Britain, and Germany, which say they still hope to save the accord - to respond. In a joint statement on Monday evening, those three countries’ foreign ministers said they were “extremely concerned” by Iran’s enrichment at Fordow. In their statement, the EU said their side has "fully upheld" their commitments under the agreement, including lifting the sanctions they had imposed over fears Iran was working to develop nuclear weapons. They warned Tehran they might trigger a dispute settlement mechanism prescribed by the deal. Under the terms agreed in 2015, the move would start a 30-day deadline for the signatories to resolve the problem. If the issue remains unsolved, it could be directed to the UN Security Council and eventually trigger the "snapback" of sanctions lifted under the deal.
Europe’s position is vital as the other signatories, Russia and China, are allies of Iran and unlikely to start the process under which sanctions could be reimposed. A senior EU official has said the bloc was pursuing a strategy of “maximum diplomacy not maximum pressure”, in a swipe at the US policy. France, Germany and the UK have been working for months on measures to help counter the sanctions, but the scale of the punitive measures has meant the so-called E3 have struggled to keep finance and trade channels open.
Tehran is frustrated by the slow implementation of INSTEX (Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges), a barter mechanism created by European signatories earlier this year to enable European companies to do business with Iran without using the US dollar. The Trump administration has warned EU nations not to use INSTEX and European businesses have avoided participating in it, fearing US penalization. A French proposed $15 billion line of credit also hasn’t emerged, although European officials still believe there is a chance to save the deal and find a way to move President Macron’s proposal forward.
The Iranian public and political class have observed in dismay Europe’s inability to fully live up to the staunch words of support its leaders pronounced. Iranian Ambassador to the UK, Hamid Baidinejad, has dismissed European arguments that it is difficult for them to circumvent the US sanctions. “They have taken commitments that are defined in very clear terms and they should be able to implement those commitments,” he said.
MAXIMUM RISK
There is not much left to sanction in Iran, and short of military conflict, there is not a lot more pressure that can be applied. Experts suspect the Trump administration is hoping that Iran’s gradual withdrawal from the nuclear deal will set off alarms across the world, especially in Europe, and help bring more countries on to the American side of this conflict. Tehran’s strategy is likely to keep the pressure on the US and Europe until one of them budges.
But one slight misstep or misunderstanding on either end could jeopardize the fragile US-Iranian relationship and tilt the two countries to war — which neither side wants. A significant incident involving U.S. forces or U.S. allies could result in retaliation by Washington, which has twice already (after the drone downing and Abqaiq attack) come close to the brink of a military clash with Iran. Iran and Israel are also on a knife-edge, with Israel far less reluctant to take military action.
