Donald Trump’s hopes of surviving a significant political setback in America’s forthcoming midterm elections will depend to a large degree on how he manages the ongoing conflict with Iran.
When the US president took his fateful decision to renew hostilities with Iran at the end of February, he calculated that he would be able to achieve his mission objectives within the space of a few weeks. These included the complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear programme, erasing the military threat Tehran posed to its regional neighbours and removing the ayatollahs from power.
Yet, while progress had undoubtedly been made in achieving some of these goals during the past six months of on-off hostilities, the prospect of the conflict reaching a successful conclusion—at least from Trump’s perspective —remains decidedly remote.
While Iran’s nuclear programme has undoubtedly suffered severe setbacks, with many of its key nuclear sites being reduced to rubble, and the Iranian military suffering the destruction of many of its weapons systems, Iran's government remains firmly in place, and its latest attacks have demonstrated that it also remains a potent military force.
Trump’s decision, therefore, to renew hostilities against Iran this week is fraught with risk, not least regarding his own political standing, with the latest US opinion polls suggesting that the US president could suffer a major setback in the upcoming midterm elections. Republicans fear they could lose their paper-thin majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate—an outcome that could undermine Trump’s presidential authority if the Democrats become the dominant party in Congress.
One US pollster has warned that the Republicans are set to suffer “historic losses” in the elections, with Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict, which has led to sharp increases in domestic fuel prices in the US, being cited as a major contributing factor to their mounting unpopularity.
