Fedorov emerges as a potential political rival to Zelensky

The Ukrainian president's mishandling of the friction between Syrskyi and Fedorov has backfired and now threatens his own political standing

Fedorov emerges as a potential political rival to Zelensky

At a time when Ukraine appears to be making significant progress on the battlefield in its long-running war with Russia, mounting concerns suggest that its recent military success could be seriously undermined by the deepening political rift at the highest levels of the Ukrainian government.

The past few months have seen the Ukrainian military demonstrate increased effectiveness in its ability to strike targets deep within Russia—a strategy that has brought the war to the doorsteps of Russian civilians. This is due to recent advances the Ukrainian military has made in producing its own drones and missiles, with Mykhailo Fedorov, the country's former defence minister, getting much of the credit for this positive development.

The 35-year-old Fedorov, who previously served as Ukraine’s digital transformation minister, became the country’s youngest-ever defence minister in January as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sought to shore up his administration after a deeply damaging corruption scandal. This followed a raid on Kyiv’s parliament building in December last year by National Anti-Corruption Bureau officers investigating Ukrainian MPs accused of taking bribes in return for votes.

Zelensky’s decision to appoint Fedorov, a close political ally, to one of the key government departments was seen as an attempt to demonstrate his determination to bring fresh energy and dynamism to Ukraine’s military campaign against Russia. But while Fedorov’s appointment coincided with a significant improvement in Ukraine’s battlefield performance, his preference for using new technological equipment, such as drones and robots, to gain an advantage over the Russians created tensions with Ukraine’s then commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi.

The clash of personalities—with the Soviet-era Syrskyi opposing Fedorov’s attempts to modernise Ukraine’s armed forces and reform military procurement to address corruption—ultimately led Zelensky to dismiss Fedorov last month, prompting a national outcry.

Zelensky's dismissal of Fedorov last month prompted a national outcry, and now the former defence minister has emerged as a potential rival presidential candidate.

While the crisis also resulted in Syrskyi losing his job, Zelensky's attempts to draw a line under the saga, with reports that the Ukrainian leader was giving serious consideration to re-appointing Fedorov to his former post, have failed, to the extent that the former defence minister has now emerged as a potential rival to replace Zelensky as president.

It appears Fedorov decided to go public this week with his concerns about Zelensky's administration after the Ukrainian leader announced the appointment of Yevhenii Khmara as the country's new defence minister. Government sources said that, in an attempt to placate Fedorov, Zelensky had offered him several other government positions that would allow him to strengthen Ukraine's technology sector, which Fedorov rejected.

In a dramatic video address posted on YouTube this week, Fedorov called for a general election—a move that would see him stand as the main candidate to replace Ukraine's high-profile wartime leader. Ukraine has not held elections since 2019, and the last round, due in May 2024, was postponed because of the war with Russia. Under Ukraine's constitution, elections cannot be held during wartime.

But in his video address, Fedorov argued powerfully that "We must find a legal, safe and realistic mechanism that will allow Ukraine to restore a full democratic process, even amidst a prolonged war…Democracy cannot be held hostage by Russia."

The former minister claimed corruption in Kyiv had been harming its war effort and claimed his country had been seeing a "systemic crisis of governance". "The old system lives by its own rules too often. It protects itself. It is scared of change," he said.

We must find a legal, safe and realistic mechanism that will allow Ukraine to restore a full democratic process, even amidst a prolonged war.

Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine's former defence minister

If a general election were to be held in Ukraine, Fedorov would certainly be a strong candidate to replace Zelensky. Recent opinion polls show that the former defence minister's trust rating soared from 35% to 65% after he was removed in July, with 72% of Ukrainians saying they opposed his dismissal.

Although it is more than a month since Fedorov's sacking, protests in his support have continued to gather pace, with a demonstration held in the centre of Kyiv on Sunday drawing thousands of his supporters. Zelensky himself has repeatedly rejected the notion of holding elections during wartime, despite demands from both US President Donald Trump and Putin to restore the democratic process.

A spokesman for the presidential office argued that it was unrealistic to plan elections while the country was still under almost daily attack from Russian drones and missiles. Questions have also been raised about whether it is actually feasible to hold elections at a time when so many Ukrainians have been displaced from their homes as a result of the war, which is now well into its fifth year.

There are also concerns, both in Ukraine and the West, that the distraction of holding a general election could play to Putin's advantage, who would be keen to exploit any sign of weakness in Kyiv. Certainly, at a time when Russia finds itself on the back foot in its long-running war with Ukraine, holding a divisive general election would be a sure-fire way of handing Ukraine's current advantage on the battlefield back to the Russians.

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