Trump's Gaza peace plan appears to be dead on arrival

Trump said that Israel was “very happy” with the deal, only for Netanyahu to reject the deal that calls for Israel's withdrawal, along with the disarmament of Hamas

Trump's Gaza peace plan appears to be dead on arrival

When US President Donald Trump announced his new plan drawn up by his Board of Peace to end the conflict in Gaza, he declared that the agreement was aimed “at ending the cycle of destruction” and launching a credible path to Palestinian “self-determination and statehood”.

The disarmament framework, which provides a 14-day window to hammer out an exact timeline after all parties approve, calls for all sides to halt military operations in Gaza and ties the process to a phased withdrawal of Israeli troops from the territory.

Trump said that Israel was “very happy” with the deal, only for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to say that he “did not agree” with the framework and would not order Israeli troops to withdraw "until Hamas is completely disarmed.”

The 20-point plan, unveiled in September last year, included the creation of the Board of Peace to oversee the agreement's implementation, as well as the disarmament of Hamas, withdrawal of Israeli troops and reconstruction of Gaza. It also envisions Israeli forces withdrawing from Gaza, the establishment of a new technocratic Palestinian government, the deployment of an international security force and the rebuilding of the battered Palestinian enclave.

Speaking at a cabinet meeting at Camp David shortly after the disarmament deal had been announced, Trump was asked whether Hamas would disarm before Israeli forces withdrew from Gaza or vice versa. Trump did not answer directly but said Gaza remained "a very complex situation".

Remaining hurdles

While Hamas has said that its weapons would be handed over to the Board of Peace as part of efforts to end the three-year conflict in Gaza, many hurdles and conditions remain. According to AP, the agreement stipulates that all weapons held by the Hamas-run police will be transferred to the US-backed Palestinian technocratic committee, known as the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, upon its arrival in the enclave. It’s not clear when that would happen since it is contingent on other steps.

Israeli occupation of the territory has increased significantly since the start of the ceasefire, from about 53% of Gaza in October to nearly 70% today.

A process to decommission and store heavy weapons and to dismantle military production sites and tunnels will begin after the arrival of the Palestinian committee and the deployment of international forces. The process will be linked to a phased Israeli withdrawal, according to the agreement.

Hamas's disarmament is deemed vital to unlocking other elements of Trump's 20-point plan. These include the entry into Gaza of the technocratic National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), the deployment of an International Stabilisation Force (ISF), and the start of desperately needed reconstruction.

Another key requirement is Israel's withdrawal from Gaza. Rather than taking steps to scale down its presence in the enclave, Israeli occupation of the territory has increased significantly since the start of the ceasefire, from about 53% of Gaza in October to nearly 70% today.

The big question now is whether Trump is willing to put the necessary pressure on both parties to move past the current stalemate and implement an agreement that both achieves the disarmament of Hamas while persuading Israel to withdraw its military forces. 

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