What if Türkiye shot down an Israeli jet?

Three years later, Syrian air defences accidentally shot down a Russian aircraft over the Mediterranean during Israeli raids near the Hmeimim and Tartus bases. The missile was Syrian, but Moscow held Israel responsible for creating the circumstances that led to the aircraft being brought down. Relations deteriorated sharply before the crisis ended with an Israeli apology and new understandings on rules of engagement that preserved Israel's freedom to pursue Iran in Syria.

Now there has nearly been a third incident, and another potential "stab", except that this time the aircraft that might have been shot down would have been Israeli, and the missile Turkish. If an Israeli fighter entered Turkish airspace, Ankara could invoke the same argument it used in 2015: the defence of sovereignty and borders. If the aircraft were over Syrian territory, however, the calculus would shift entirely.

Competing visions

For years, Netanyahu has maintained that Israeli forces must retain freedom of military action to prevent threats from emerging north of Israel's borders and to preserve access to Iranian airspace. Türkiye, meanwhile, regards northern Syria as an essential component of its national security and maintains troops, bases, interests and allies on the ground. Damascus insists that both its airspace and its territory are Syrian.

Three distinct security visions intersect in the same sky, and Washington is trying to reconcile them. If Ankara were to shoot down an Israeli aircraft, the next question would be how Tel Aviv would respond. It is difficult to imagine Netanyahu, in an election season, treating the loss of an Israeli fighter as an ordinary incident. The episode could open the door to retaliation and counter-retaliation, turning Syria into an arena for Turkish-Israeli confrontation.

Washington would then find itself between two of its regional allies. Both Israel and Türkiye are US strategic allies; the latter is a NATO member with a US military presence.

Caught between allies

What would Trump say to Netanyahu if Türkiye shot down an Israeli jet? And what would he say to Erdoğan if Israel retaliated by striking Turkish forces? Would he side with Israel, with his NATO ally, or press both sides to absorb the blows and halt the escalation?

Then there is Damascus, which would stand to gain from such a confrontation while also paying a high price.

The gain would be that Israel might discover, for the first time in years, that its freedom of action in Syrian airspace has limits, and that Türkiye's presence in the north has drawn a new line that Israeli aircraft cannot cross without additional calculation.

The cost would be that Syria itself would become the arena of confrontation. Damascus would find itself caught between its ally Ankara, its negotiations with Tel Aviv, and its determination to restore sovereignty over its entire territory and airspace.

Here lies the paradox of the 'new Syria': it seeks to extricate the country from other people's wars, yet its geography continues to draw those wars back onto Syrian soil. The Americans are now trying to establish a mechanism to prevent friction. The Syrians want to return to negotiations. The Turks do not want a war with Israel. The Israelis, meanwhile, are still living in a post-October 7 world.

The danger is that wars do not always begin because leaders want them. Sometimes they begin with an aircraft entering the wrong place, a radar detecting it, and a pilot left with only seconds to decide. Netanyahu's calculations as elections draw nearer, and Erdoğan's as he approaches his own decision over elections, suggest that further tests may lie ahead.