Between Obama and Trump, a different Middle East

Endless crises

In Lebanon, crises continue to accumulate, some fuelled by Hezbollah and others triggered by Israel's war with the group. Lebanon, both officially and socially, can no longer live with a weapon that has brought it nothing but ruin for more than a quarter of a century. Israel, in turn, is no longer willing to accept the fiction that this arsenal will be used solely within Lebanon or Syria.

In Syria, Assad's fall has left Syrians absorbed in the task of rebuilding a state, one not built on conflict, nor used as a corridor for militia weapons. His loss dealt the harshest blow to Iran's regional project, severing the geographic artery that linked Tehran to Beirut for decades.

Iraq, too, is in a different moment. Iran's man, Nouri al-Maliki, attempted a return to power, yet Washington's veto of his return outweighed Tehran's support. Even the militias aligned with Iran are now being pressed to hand their weapons to the state.

Lebanon's battle is more complex, though far from impossible. Before the American, Israeli, and Arab veto against Hezbollah's arsenal, there is the veto of a Lebanese majority, reinforced by the government's own commitments to place all weapons under state authority.

Hezbollah is attempting to turn back the clock, yet failure shadows its every move. It can no longer replay the events of 7 May, 2008, when it seized control of several Sunni-majority areas in West Beirut in response to a government decision to disarm its telecommunications network, nor can it impose governments shaped to its liking as it once did through intimidation tactics.

A much-changed Iran

Iran itself has changed. Its Supreme Leader has been killed, as has Qasem Soleimani, one of the principal architects of its expansionist strategy. Meanwhile, Iranians seize every opportunity to voice their anger at what their country has become. Sanctions have left deep and unmistakable marks.

Tehran tried to pressure the world by wielding the Strait of Hormuz as leverage, expecting all sides to rush to reopen it at any cost. No one did.

As I have said before, this war came late, yet it had to come. Some forms of peace are born only out of war. All sides may claim victory, but the truth is clearer than ever: the age of militias is drawing to a close, and Barack Obama's project has lost its wager.

The states and peoples of this region are no longer consolation prizes to be handed to the Supreme Leader in deference to an elitist, Orientalist vision. This is a region that has paid dearly to move from the shadow of militias into the shelter of the state.