More than a year after the outbreak of the US-Israeli war against Iran, Tehran is seeking to widen the battlefield. It is putting into practice the principle of "distributing the pain," repeatedly invoked by Iran’s military and civilian leaders, while attempting to draw the region into an open-ended conflict.
The war came after years of mounting tension, sanctions, faltering agreements, proxy conflicts and an unrelenting struggle for regional influence. Throughout that period, the states of the Middle East bore the highest political, economic and security costs. The present crisis cannot be understood apart from this longer history, or from the role played over recent decades by Iranian-backed militias in several Arab countries.
This explains why most Arab states opposed the war from the outset, while the Gulf states worked to contain its escalation. Their position reflected a sober recognition that any open confrontation would exact a price on the entire region. The months since have vindicated that concern, with the flames of war reaching far beyond Iran and Israel.
In recent days, Iraq has once again emerged as one of the principal theatres of the conflict. Drone attacks launched from Iraqi territory struck energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, prompting American-Saudi air strikes against positions held by armed factions affiliated with the Popular Mobilisation Forces. Whatever the operational details, the political message is unmistakable: Iraqi territory cannot be used as a platform for attacks on neighbouring states without consequence.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump continues to intensify his threats against Iran while keeping the prospect of negotiation alive. But even if an agreement between Washington and Tehran is reached, it does not settle the question of regional stability.
