Four men and a world in flux

Equally notable was the absence of Chinese President Xi Jinping, who in recent years had become the most prominent guest at Putin's celebrations. Yet the global stage no longer revolves around Moscow alone. Xi chose to remain in Beijing, where preparations are underway to receive the American president.

Attention is now turning to the anticipated summit between the two leaders, one of the most sensitive political encounters on the global stage. It will be more than a ceremonial meeting. It will be a quiet confrontation between two grand projects: a US effort to preserve Washington's position as the world's leading power, and a Chinese vision convinced that the global balance of power is gradually shifting towards Asia.

The summit's agenda is long: Taiwan, the trade war, energy, supply chains, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors. Many fear that Taiwan could become the world's most dangerous flashpoint. Any confrontation there would not remain a limited regional dispute; it would risk becoming a direct clash between the world's two greatest powers.

A key nexus

Against this backdrop, the Middle East re-emerges as a key nexus in the new global balance. Washington understands that any renewed large-scale war with Iran would deepen the crisis in the global economy, unsettle energy markets and maritime routes, and divert American attention from its overriding priority: confronting China. Beijing, meanwhile, whose economic and strategic ties with Tehran continue to expand, views regional stability as essential to protecting its commercial interests, energy supplies, and the Belt and Road Initiative.

Averting a wider confrontation 

Pakistan's mediation, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi's visit to Beijing, and a series of high-level contacts all indicate that Iran will be present at the table between Xi and Trump, whether through efforts to prevent a new war, manage regional tensions, or avert a wider confrontation that could shake the global economy.

For his part, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to consolidate his position at home and abroad. The results of the Bengal regional elections carried significant political implications, showing the continued expansion of the Bharatiya Janata Party's influence, even in areas long considered distant from the discourse of Hindu nationalism. This brings the party closer to the status of a dominant ruling force across this vast country.

India today is no longer merely a rising Asian state. It is a global power seeking to navigate the contradictions of the international system. It cooperates with the United States economically and in security affairs, maintains its traditional ties with Russia, and competes with China for influence across Asia. Modi is working to entrench the idea of a "new India," drawing strength from US-China rivalry and from the West's need for a major Asian partner capable of balancing Beijing's influence.

Four men, each carrying his own project for his country and for the world, are bound by one reality: the world that emerged after the end of the Cold War is changing rapidly. The idea of a unipolar order is steadily receding, giving way to a world that appears less stable, more competitive, and more uncertain than at any time in recent memory.