When the US and Israel waged war on 28 February, some expected the immediate collapse of the Iranian regime, following the assassination of its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei or a situation in which an Iranian Delcy Rodríguez could emerge, who would be more receptive to American diktats. Some even thought a US ground troop invasion was imminent.
But none of this happened. The regime didn't fall, and Tehran did not wave the white flag. But does its survival mean it has won? Some would argue, yes.
My interpretation, however, is more nuanced. Even though it didn't fall, it has been significantly eroded. Looking back at past examples, one could argue that collapse is not a sudden act but a steady chipping away of the fortifications that prop up said regime.
Some say Saddam Hussein’s fall in 2003 began with the 1991 Gulf War, Muammar Gaddafi’s collapse in 2011 began at the end of 2003, and Bashar al-Assad’s fall began in 2011, or perhaps in 2005, when his army withdrew from Lebanon.
Another example is the 1967 war. Arab states lost territory to Israel, but ideologues insisted that they had ‘not been defeated’ because Israel's objective had been to overthrow their governments and that had not happened. But that narrative did not last for very long. In reality, the war constituted a profound strategic defeat that reshaped the region for decades.
