It appears that Donald Trump’s Iran policy has shifted from "maximum pressure" to "maximum uncertainty," with Washington sending mixed messages in the aftermath of the US president’s decision to extend the fragile ceasefire between the two countries. Trump explained his decision last week as giving Iran’s leaders “more time to come up with a more unified position” in talks mediated by Pakistan.
But since then, Trump has both said he is keen on reaching a deal with Tehran, while also sending additional military firepower to the region, including a third aircraft carrier group, which is currently parked in waters near Iran. At the moment, it appears Trump is more interested in diplomatic—rather than military—engagement, but given his mercurial unpredictability, it remains to be seen which way the pendulum will ultimately swing.
But should he opt for diplomacy, there’s one crucial variable missing: steady US engagement with its Arab partners, particularly in the Gulf, on what the strategic endgame with Iran looks like. And while the US did closely coordinate with its Arab partners as it waged war on Iran, this was mostly centred on military operations and tactics—particularly coordinating a defensive response to Iran’s subsequent attacks on Gulf states.
Going forward, the US should involve its regional allies more in its diplomatic engagement with Iran. While Pakistan remains the key mediator for coordinating talks—with Egypt and Türkiye also assisting—Gulf countries have largely been absent at the negotiating table. This is mostly due to their shattered trust in their Persian neighbour, after they found themselves bearing the brunt of attacks.
