The Israeli-Lebanese negotiations that were launched on 14 April in Washington, DC, were the first of their kind in many years. They took place under the shadow of significant gaps and low expectations, as well as ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. For its part, Israel has effectively been drawn into the negotiations under American pressure, even though separating the Lebanese arena from the conflict with Iran and the ceasefire is in Israel’s interest. Whether this can actually be achieved is a different matter altogether.
It was the beginning of what is expected to be a long and bumpy process, unfolding amid ongoing regional and domestic tensions. The two delegations included both ambassadors and their assistants, with the support of the Trump administration.
It is unclear yet how and when the talks will continue. The complexity of the starting conditions reflects an incongruity between immediate expectations and long-term objectives. Israel expects the Lebanese government to assert sovereignty across its territory and disarm Hezbollah, while knowing full well that it is incapable of doing so.
Practical measures
But the pressure to ensure the security and stability of residents of northern Israel requires practical, implementable measures in the near term. Lebanon cannot immediately establish full sovereignty over its territory. And even if it eventually could, it would be a gradual and complex process. Therefore, in the near term, Israel should avoid demands or preconditions that it knows Lebanon cannot meet. Without recognising this, negotiations are likely to quickly collapse. A slow-and-steady negotiating framework can both strengthen the Lebanese government and build mutual trust between the two states.
The first phase should tackle agreeing on long-term objectives. These could include the extension of Lebanese government sovereignty over all its territory, a full Israeli withdrawal from areas it currently holds in Lebanon, recognition of the process as a bilateral engagement between two sovereign states without the involvement of additional external actors, and ultimately a non-belligerence agreement that could evolve into a peace agreement.
Second, it is important to ensure that the negotiating framework launched this week remains in place, even if no immediate agreements are reached or hostilities continue.
