Why proposed Israel-Lebanon talks are so important

Laying the groundwork

Aoun's call for direct negotiations demands a different response. Israel should respond positively to the Lebanese president's outstretched hand. Its answer to the call for direct talks should be public, positive, and capable of generating diplomatic momentum.

Israel should exploit Hezbollah's current lack of popularity within Lebanon to increase pressure on it from Lebanese society. More importantly, Tel Aviv can drive a wedge through the Shiite community, between Hezbollah's supporters and those aligned with Berri's Amal.

The ceasefire question is the most immediate and difficult issue. Lebanon wants Israel to stop bombing and talk, in the hope of avoiding a large-scale military operation of the kind that has been so costly to the country over recent years. At the same time, Beirut knows that it cannot impose its will on Hezbollah. For Israel, the decision to cease firing without Hezbollah doing likewise would be extremely difficult, especially since Israel sees this moment as an opportunity to intensify the blows against it.

Israel should nevertheless take the unilateral decision to stop bombing ahead of negotiations. If Hezbollah still refuses to do so, this would strengthen Israel's hand by increasing Lebanese public anger toward Hezbollah. It would also give Israel ample justification to step up its campaign against the group. If, however, Hezbollah were to accept the ceasefire and reciprocate, this would sow discord between its leaders and its patron, Iran. Either outcome is positive for Israel.

Although still uncertain, the possibility of including Syria in negotiations creates an intriguing opportunity to address the long-standing Israel-Lebanon border dispute. Constructive Syrian involvement could help stabilise Lebanon. Creating a supportive public atmosphere is critical in both Lebanon and Israel. It would help Israel view Lebanon through a political lens as well as a military one.

Moment of opportunity

The disarmament of Hezbollah is still the most immediate and difficult issue. The Lebanese government has already ordered Hezbollah to disarm. The goal should now be a structured action plan to achieve that, with a defined timetable, but external support must be secured for the Lebanese Army, both in terms of finance and equipment.

Disputes over the land border are solvable, despite the complexity of several points. Constructive Syrian involvement, particularly in clarifying the status of the Shebaa Farms, could facilitate a resolution and show Washington and Tel Aviv that creative diplomacy from Damascus can help solve long-standing problems.

When it comes to Israel-Lebanon talks, it is important to set ambitious yet realistic goals. Beyond the immediate issue of Hezbollah's disarmament, they could consider a non-belligerency agreement and mutual recognition between the two states. Given Lebanon's urgent need for stability and economic recovery, such a prospect is now more feasible than before.

There will be obstacles, but it is crucial not to squander the opportunity. Even if it had little choice in the matter, Hezbollah's decision to join the fighting on the side of Iran was misguided to the extent that it may have sealed its own fate. That development alone opens the door to a new reality between these neighbours. Such opportunities are rare.