Pro-government demonstrations in Iran indicate that the West’s hasty predictions of the imminent collapse of the Iranian regime may be premature. Hundreds of thousands have marched in support of the ruling system, despite economic and political failure, and despite the disintegration of the regional 'axis of resistance' in which Iran has invested for over three decades.
For his part, US President Donald Trump has openly called on Iranians to "keep protesting and take over state institutions," adding that "help is on its way. He also announced a 25% tariff increase on countries that continue to trade with Iran. For his part, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared that the government in Tehran "is nearing its end" and that "the Iranian leadership is living its final days."
This came amid a wave of diplomatic protests, as Iranian ambassadors in Western capitals were summoned over the escalating use of force against demonstrators. In Israel, meanwhile, public discourse is dominated by threats, military planning and the identification of future targets for airstrikes.
While anti-government protests may not signal the imminent end of the regime, what distinguishes these demonstrations from those of the past is the convergence of chronic economic failure and the weakening of its 'axis'. This project aimed to shield Iran from external threats by establishing buffer zones in countries such as Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. These areas were intended to prevent war from reaching Iranian soil, as it did during the conflict with Iraq between 1980 and 1988, and to divert Iran’s adversaries into engagements far from its borders.
