Israel has rebuffed overtures from the Lebanese authorities to begin direct negotiations on a ceasefire, accusing Beirut of dragging its feet over its promise to disarm Hezbollah. They also argued that the moment for talks has passed, insisting that the Israeli army will complete the mission it began and eliminate the group once and for all.
But before Israel proceeds with this phase, it hopes to foment civil strife and tensions by forcibly displacing Lebanon's predominantly Shiite population from the south. This pours fuel on an already toxic atmosphere of mutual hatred between pro and anti-Hezbollah factions of Lebanese society, with each side blaming the other for the country's predicament. By driving Shiites into districts dominated by other sects, it hopes to foment social tension through overcrowding and existing friction among citizens.
Three-front threat
And despite Israel's exacting a punishing civilian toll in its current offensive, Hezbollah's Shiite supporter base still remains intact, albeit weakened. This is mainly because of the perceived threats against the Lebanese Shiite sect coming from fronts: Israel, other hostile sects in Lebanon and also the new regime in Syria.
