Egypt's multipolar balancing act is paying off

With nuclear know-how from Russia, weapons from America, infrastructure from China, and money from the Gulf, Egypt is making the most out of a world with many powers.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend a welcoming ceremony for participants of the BRICS summit in Kazan on 22 October 2024.
Maxim Shemetov / POOL / AFP
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend a welcoming ceremony for participants of the BRICS summit in Kazan on 22 October 2024.

Egypt's multipolar balancing act is paying off

A hot wind rolled in from the Mediterranean on 19 November. A few metres from the coast, a 330-tonne pressure vessel manufactured in St. Petersburg was being lowered into one of the four units of Egypt’s first nuclear power station in the north-west town of Al-Dabaa.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin looked on via video link and offered the tight, practised smiles of men who knew the cameras were rolling. In the background, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors in blue caps scribbled notes, Chinese engineers filmed on their phones, and Egyptian army officers kept watch from shaded tents.

Years of multifaceted diplomacy culminated in the brief ceremony. It was a Russian pressure vessel being lowered into the reactor, and a Russian loan covering 85% of the $30bn project cost, but the inspectors guaranteeing that the reactor will never be weaponised were largely Western, and the grid that will one day carry the electricity to Egyptian cities is being wired by Chinese contractors.

Not picking sides

By working with Moscow, Beijing, and the West, Egypt has declared—more clearly than in any speech—that it is not ‘picking sides,’ but rather its ambitions are making different ‘sides’ pick Egypt. Gone are the thundering balcony speeches of Egyptian revolutionary leader Gamal Abdel Nasser, railing against imperialism while invoking Arab nationalism. This is different.

Abdel Nasser famously nationalised the Suez Canal, accepted Soviet missiles, and turned Cairo into the capital of the Third World. His non-alignment was romantic, ideological, but ultimately tragic, as Egypt was defeated in the 1967 War against Israel, leaving his doctrine and policies in tatters. Egypt spent the next six decades tethered to American aid and to financial support from all other countries and international institutions.

By contrast, el-Sisi's non-alignment version is colder, sharper, and infinitely more profitable. Where Abdel Nasser had to pick between Washington and Moscow, between East and West, el-Sisi refuses to do so. He joined the BRICS group alongside Russia, China, Iran, and the UAE in January 2024, signed infrastructure agreements with Beijing worth billions of dollars, accepted tens of billions of dollars in Gulf money since 2014, but continued collecting the annual $1.3bn military aid package from Washington, alongside the additional US arms sales worth billions more.

SPA
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Cairo, Egypt.

Political leverage

While Abdel Nasser’s old non-alignment was about pride, the new multi-alignment—designed and steered by el-Sisi—is about survival and political leverage. This seems to be working despite a lack of options and some heady problems. Red Sea shipping attacks have slashed Egypt’s vital Suez Canal revenues by about 60% while inflation only recently dipped below 12%.

On Egypt’s doorstep, there has been war and instability in Gaza, Sudan, and Libya, while the freshwater dispute with Ethiopia over the latter’s damming of the Nile River still simmers. Relations between Cairo and Washington hit a recent low when US President Donald Trump suggested that America turn Gaza into a Mediterranean beachfront resort, the implication being that the US and Israel would transfer (either forcibly or through incentives) two million Palestinians into Egypt’s Sinai peninsula.

In any other decade, these would all be existential crises, but in 2025, they are instead bargaining chips that Cairo is using to its best advantage. For instance, Rafah, the Egyptian city abutting Gaza, became a valuable Egyptian geopolitical asset because it gave Cairo the chance to control the crossing, regulate the flow of aid, prevent weapons from being smuggled in, and keep Islamist militants out.

Washington is well aware of all this, which is why the US Congress keeps waiving conditions attached to its military aid, and why the Pentagon keeps fast-tracking the supply of important spare parts, especially for F-16 jets. The moment Egyptian tanks appeared on the border with Gaza in April, Trump's "Riviera" idea was quietly dropped.

By working with Moscow, Beijing, the Gulf, and the West, Egypt shows that it is not 'picking sides'

Involving all parties

Today, Moscow is building Egypt's energy future. Al-Dabaa is no longer a distant dream. The first reactor is on track for fuel loading in 2028 and full commercial operation by 2030. There are more than 25,000 workers on site, 80% of them Egyptian. Russia's atomic energy corporation, Rosatom, is training 1,700 local nuclear specialists, with 55% of al-Dabaa contracts awarded to Egyptian firms.

Despite the threat of US-led sanctions hanging over Rosatom, the station's concrete foundations keep rising. Cairo has made the project too strategic for Moscow to abandon and too safeguarded by the IAEA for Washington to kill. Meanwhile, Chinese firms are quietly transforming the Suez Canal Economic Zone into the western anchor of Beijing's Belt and Road initiative, a global network of infrastructure investments.

Chinese investment has flowed into Egyptian ports, industrial parks, and high-speed rail links covering vast distances. Yuan-denominated trade now covers a big chunk of bilateral commerce, shielding Egypt from dollar shortages. Yet joint military exercises in April this year between the Egyptian and Chinese air forces showed that relations are now not solely economic.

Khaled Desouki / AFP
China's Ba Yi Aerobatics Team releases smoke while performing manoeuvres during the first Egypt International Airshow at Alamein International Airport in Alamein in northern Egypt on September 4, 2024.

Regional relations

Gulf capitals—especially Riyadh and Abu Dhabi—remain the backers of last resort. The UAE's giant $35bn real estate investment in Ras El-Hikma on Egypt's Mediterranean coast sits alongside several Saudi central-bank deposits and quiet Qatari bridging loans to keep the Egyptian pound afloat.

In return, Cairo has aligned with the majority of Gulf states on Yemen, Gaza, and Sudan, in particular, driving the Gaza reconstruction plan. The March 2025 Cairo Arab Summit endorsed the Arab blueprint, and contracts within the plan will most likely flow through Egyptian companies when Phase II of the Gaza ceasefire plan starts, and the Gaza-Sinai border will stay under Egyptian control.

Even Tehran is being slowly brought in from the cold. While Cairo and Tehran are yet to appoint ambassadors, warming relations have given Egyptian mediators a discreet line to the patron of Hamas and Yemen's Houthis. According to reports, Egyptian intelligence officers were at the heart of hammering out the final details of October's Gaza ceasefire.

In terms of its alignment and engagement with a whole host of international actors, Egypt is beginning to resemble the juggler spinning multiple plates. But as every juggler knows, the risk is that adding one more plate will send the entire act crashing to the floor. For Egypt, these spinning plates are a serious test of its risk management.

For instance, if Rosatom were hit by sanctions, it could immediately stall deliveries of the nuclear power plant. Likewise, patience with the open-ended costs of Gaza is running thin in Gulf capitals grappling with their own fiscal pressures, who wonder how long the reconstruction burden will remain a shared regional bill.

Khaled DESOUKI / AFP
An Egyptian army M60 main battle tank and an infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) is deployed near the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip on March 23, 2024.

Every time the music falters, Cairo finds another partner willing to steady the pole. For example, when Trump first raised the Sinai refugee idea, Egyptian tanks rolled up to the border and billions of dollars materialised from Arab capitals in investment deals shortly after. When Rosatom faced potential sanctions in September, sovereign wealth funds in the Gulf mulled over the acquisition of stakes in Egyptian firms and assets. When dollar liquidity dried up, Beijing expanded yuan swap lines.

This is not by luck but design; a foreign policy that treats every crisis as a bidding war. While Abdel Nasser's non-alignment ended in the smoking wreckage of 1967 and decades of dependence on American wheat shipments, el-Sisi's has so far delivered growth above 4%, with energy security on the horizon. Importantly, Egypt has avoided being dragged into war.

The reactor vessel, lowered on 19 November, was not just steel and concrete; it was the physical proof that Egypt's balancing act is working. For now, the desert wind still carries the plates aloft. In this, Egypt can claim to be winning the most sophisticated diplomatic game the Middle East has seen in 50 years. No longer just surviving the multipolar waves, Egypt is learning to surf them.

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