Zohran Mamdani threatens an American political earthquake

Generational shift

Mamdani exposes deep fissures within the Democratic Party, causing party elders to hesitate. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, 74, was first elected to the New York State Assembly almost 17 years before Mamdani was born. He has withheld his endorsement, while House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries only recently lent his support. Both are staunch defenders of Israel. The party's progressive wing and younger leaders are far more enthusiastic. Even Governor Kathy Hochul, a centrist Democrat and vocal supporter of Israel, has endorsed Mamdani.

Critics warn that backing Mamdani could imperil Democratic prospects in next year's mid-term elections, particularly in swing districts, because Republicans paint Mamdani and his supporters as "communists". Yet a decisive victory could also signal the dawn of a new mould-breaking political order, forcing some soul-searching on the Democrats.

House Speaker Mike Johnson said Jeffries' endorsement was a "political earthquake," a triumph for the insurgent left, and a dire omen for the centrists among Democrats. But there is no question that Mamdani has energised the progressive base on a platform that includes tax rises for the wealthy to fund social programmes, and unwavering advocacy for Palestinian rights.

Both make Democrat centrists wince, but he nevertheless appears to have captured the public mood. A recent Gallup poll shows that 66% of Democrats now view socialism favourably (compared to 39% of Americans overall). If it were to outright reject Mamdani, the Democratic establishment knows it risks alienating his youthful base, which would precipitate a disastrous turnout in November's mid-terms.

Capturing the zeitgeist

Some analysts have pointed out that Mamdani's meteoric rise bears an uncanny resemblance to that of Donald Trump. His populism initially repelled the Republican Party establishment, but his growing popularity with voters ultimately compelled them to acquiesce. Likewise, for Democrats, it is no longer a question of whether to accommodate Mamdani, but how to embrace the generational tide he embodies.

Mamdani's opponents have deployed incendiary rhetoric, not least from the far-right Christian bloc, pro-Israel Democrats in Congress, and pro-Israel lobbying groups such as AIPAC. In a particularly repugnant remark, Cuomo said Mamdani would "rejoice" if a terrorist attack on the city were to occur during his tenure. Although Cuomo later walked back the comment, he still maintained that Mamdani plays the victim and shows insufficient commitment to fighting antisemitism.

Mamdani responded by saying that such attacks target his Muslim identity, adding that he had never invoked jihad, nor has he ever called for a "global uprising". On the contrary, he cultivated relationships with New York's Jewish communities and secured endorsements from numerous liberal Jewish organisations, particularly those critical of Israel's military actions in Gaza.

Despite the attacks from pro-Israel groups, Mamdani has gained notable traction among Jewish voters—polls show that he leads his opponents by 17% within that demographic. Powered by more than 50,000 volunteers, his campaign has made a concerted effort to engage Jewish constituents, and he won support from progressive Zionists after publicly acknowledging the horror of the 7 October attacks, while also condemning Israel's response as genocidal. New York's Jewish communities are politically diverse, with generational, denominational, and ideological divides.

Propelled by the young

Though Mamdani enjoys broad support across ethnic and racial lines, his core base consists of disillusioned youth—those alienated by the widening inequality, the concentration of wealth, systemic corruption, and the steady erosion of the middle class. His campaign has been disciplined and focused, side-stepping cultural provocations and avoided a public sparring match with President Trump. Instead, it has centred on substantive policy proposals that address urgent municipal concerns.

The weakness of his opponents has further propelled his ascent. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, a centrist Democrat, faced federal corruption charges and attempted a re-election campaign. His bid collapsed after Trump reportedly agreed to drop the charges in exchange for Adams' cooperation on immigration enforcement. Adams ultimately endorsed Cuomo, whose own political career has been dogged by scandal.

Mamdani knows the public are dissatisfied. Approval ratings for city services have plunged to 27%, so more voters are receptive to his message of reform. Yet if he wins, Mamdani will inherit a budget deficit of up to $8bn, and face staunch opposition from President Trump, who has already curtailed federal funding for key social programmes including Medicaid, food assistance, and unemployment insurance, raising city living costs and putting more pressure on working families.

Federal support remains vital for housing and education—both cornerstone priorities of Mamdani's platform—yet many now think that Trump, along with a cadre of wealthy adversaries, will sabotage Mamdani's administration, which they see as a socialist experiment threatening the prevailing capitalist order. Mamdani will have to navigate the city's power structures and make compromises without betraying his principles or alienating the movement that looks set to elect him.