Putin mulls next move amid latest sanctions wave

The US and EU are now trying to cripple Russia's energy exports in a bid to get it to agree to a Ukraine truce. But will it work?

Reuters /Al Majalla

Putin mulls next move amid latest sanctions wave

Nazareth Seferian

last update on 31 Oct 2025

"We will act to take Russian oil and gas off the global market," said UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer during a press event in London on 25 October. Flanking him were Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte, and the leaders of Denmark and the Netherlands.

This meeting of the 'Coalition of the Willing', which included other European leaders who joined via video link, took decisive new steps against Russia, emboldened by fresh US sanctions announced earlier in the week.

But what has been agreed, and how much pressure will this put on the Kremlin?

Trump steps up

Donald Trump has been president of the US for nine months, but this is the first time his administration has confirmed new sanctions against Russia. Until now, his policy has been to engage with Vladimir Putin and bring him to the negotiating table, culminating in a face-to-face meeting between the two leaders in mid-August—something most analysts considered unthinkable during Joe Biden's presidency.

Trump had even suggested they would meet again soon, with Budapest slated as the likely host country. However, there are signs that the US president is tiring of the Kremlin's failure to move towards peace—or at least a ceasefire.

"Every time I speak with Vladimir, I have good conversations, and then they don't go anywhere. They just don't go anywhere," said Trump on 22 October.

Trump: Every time I speak to Vladimir (Putin), I have a good conversation... and then they don’t go anywhere. They just don’t go anywhere. pic.twitter.com/8HsSK7WcJv
— Polymarket Intel (@PolymarketIntel) October 23, 2025

Oil firms targeted

The US sanctions target Russia's two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, blocking their assets in the US and prohibiting American companies from doing business with them. For its part, the European Union (EU) adopted its 19th package of sanctions against Russia on 23 October. In addition to a full transaction ban on Rosneft and Gazprom Neft, these sanctions target Russia's exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for the first time.

This move follows years of debate. Since the launch of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the EU has continued to buy Russian LNG, paying an estimated €73bn by some estimates. However, the import ban will only come into effect on 1 January 2027, giving EU member states time to transition to alternative suppliers. The new EU package also targets Russia's shadow oil fleet. An additional 117 vessels were listed, bringing the total number of banned ships to 557, thereby denying them access to ports and services. Moreover, the sanctions targeted companies that serve this fleet, including Litasco Middle East DMCC and two oil trading companies based in Hong Kong and the UAE.

The biggest buyers of Russian oil—India and China—were not targeted in the latest round of White House sanctions, despite constant hints from Trump that he wants to see a change of tack from New Delhi and Beijing.

The president has stated several times in the past few weeks that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has agreed to stop buying Russian oil—a claim denied by New Delhi. Trump also suggested he might raise the topic with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their meeting in South Korea at the end of October, the first time the two have met during Trump's second term.

There are signs of a genuine shift in Chinese purchases of Russian oil

The EU sanctions package, meanwhile, does not include the confiscation of Russian assets in Europe. Although EU member states discussed a proposal to raid €140bn of frozen Russian assets, making them available to Ukraine as a 'reparations loan', the plan was blocked by Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever, who cited legal and political concerns regarding the confiscation and use of frozen assets.

European Commissioner for Equality, Preparedness and Crisis Management, Hadja Lahbib, also stated that the assets were protected by international law and that any responsibility for their confiscation would have to be shared by all 27 EU member states. "Belgium, but also other member states, are aware that we need to go forward cautiously," she said, suggesting the topic could be revisited in December.

While Starmer's statement about taking Russian oil and gas "off the market" sounded determined, the truth is that the European sanctions package does not yet include Russian pipeline gas or crude oil.

Quick to dismiss

Russia has been quick to suggest it is business as usual and that this new round of sanctions has not put it on the back foot. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the proposed meeting between Trump and Putin in Hungary was "postponed" rather than cancelled, and that "the process is complicated". He did, however, suggest that the new sanctions by the White House were an "unfriendly step".

The EU sanctions targeted two major Chinese refineries and a Chinese oil trading company. Additionally, US sanctions announced on 22 October mean that any Chinese entities dealing in Russian oil will no longer be able to conduct transactions in US dollars. As such, there are signs of a genuine shift in Chinese purchases of Russian oil.

Reuters has reported that PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, and Zhenhua Oil are suspending their purchases of seaborne Russian oil, although this may be a temporary measure. There are still many smaller purchasers in China, but these four large companies account for a significant share of the nearly 1.4 million barrels of seaborne Russian oil that go to China every day.

China alone has purchased more than $150bn worth of Russian oil and oil products since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Some analysts have calculated that China has reserves of around 1.25 billion barrels of oil; therefore, a temporary pause should not have a significant impact on its economy in the short term.

India, meanwhile, has also taken notice. Modi faces pressure from a 50% tariff imposed by the US, which could be halved if he decides to wean his country off Russian oil. Since February 2022, the country has imported approximately $120bn worth of Russian oil and oil products. India's economy has greatly benefited from discounted Russian oil, but the country's biggest players have signalled a change of plan.

A spokesman for the Reliance Group, India's largest purchaser of Russian crude oil, stated that a "recalibration of Russian oil imports is ongoing" and that the company will align with the government's guidelines. The White House's decision to block transactions in US dollars seems to be playing a key role as well, with some Indian refineries stating that their purchases will drop to zero if payments do not clear.

If history is anything to go by, India will likely comply—at least to a certain extent—with Trump's demands, as it has done in the past with Iranian and Venezuelan oil imports. Analysts in India are suggesting there has already been an increase in oil imports from Iraq, which now accounts for about 20% of India's needs, and from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, covering a further 22%.

The US stands to gain financially from these latest sanctions. Europe is already turning to it as an alternative source of energy.

Something to think about

If this latest round of sanctions from the West forces the Kremlin to make a deal, then it will be a clear victory for Trump. Many people who have worked with the US president have claimed he is usually driven by two incentives—ego and financial gain.

He has failed to end the Russia-Ukraine War, despite claiming he would do so "within 24 hours" of taking office. Attempting to woo Putin has clearly backfired, and it seems Trump's patience is running thin, with his failure blighting his claim for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Meanwhile, the US stands to gain financially from these latest sanctions. Europe is already turning to it as an alternative source of energy, and it seems likely India will source some of its oil from America as well. The sanctions also initially drove up oil prices, although they have since stabilised following a planned increase in output by OPEC member states.

For the moment, the latest round of sanctions has given the Kremlin something to think about. But Putin and his team have never rushed to decisions, and it is unlikely they will hurry to sign a deal. They have time before these sanctions take effect, and they will use every second to plan their next steps.

+ / -