Will the latest US sanctions on Russia tip the scales?

Frustrated by Putin's refusal to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine, Trump has imposed a new "tremendous" package of sanctions on Russia, which could have a profound impact on its war effort

Will the latest US sanctions on Russia tip the scales?

US President Donald Trump's decision to impose hard-hitting sanctions against Russia's leading oil companies is an indication of his deepening frustration with the Kremlin's failure to take his ceasefire proposals seriously.

After the success he achieved in negotiating the release of Israeli hostages in return for the release of Palestinian prisoners earlier this month, Trump said he was keen to bring his peace-making skills to bear on the long-running Ukraine conflict.

In an attempt to break the impasse that has dogged his previous attempts to implement a ceasefire in Gaza, Trump agreed to have yet another lengthy phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin to resume negotiations on ending the deadlock.

But while the initial indications from Trump's two-hour conversation with the Russian leader suggested progress might be possible on implementing a ceasefire, it soon became clear that, for all Putin's encouraging comments, there had been no significant change in the Russians' uncompromising position on the ceasefire terms.

The Kremlin's refusal to compromise on key issues, such as the complex land for peace formula that forms the basis of Trump's ceasefire proposals, was made abundantly clear during subsequent discussions between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Russian opposite number Sergei Lavrov.

During discussions between the two top diplomats, Lavrov made it clear that Moscow had no intention of compromising on its maximalist positions on ending the war in Ukraine.

Lavrov told a press conference in Moscow that he had informed Rubio that Russia's position—that a peace agreement must come before a ceasefire in its war with Ukraine—had not changed. According to US media reports, Lavrov became "exercised” during the call with Rubio and made little effort to respond positively to the Trump administration's ceasefire plans.

The failure of the Lavrov-Rubio talks to make significant progress has now resulted in Trump cancelling the face-to-face summit with Putin in Budapest next month that had been proposed initially following the phone call.

"I don’t want to have a wasted meeting; I don't want to have a waste of time," Trump said after confirming the summit due to take place in the Hungarian capital had been shelved. He declined to give details about how the talks broke down, saying he would "see what happens" as events unfolded.

The failure of the Lavrov-Rubio talks to make significant progress has now resulted in Trump cancelling the face-to-face summit with Putin in Budapest next month 

Growing frustration

Instead, in a bid to increase the pressure on Putin to take the US ceasefire deal proposals seriously, Trump has imposed a "tremendous" package of sanctions against Russia's two largest oil companies, which are accused of funding Putin's war machine.

During a press conference in the White House on Wednesday evening, Trump said "it was time" to impose further sanctions on Russia as he expressed frustration at Putin's unwillingness to end the war.

"Honestly, every time I speak with Vladimir, I have good conversations and then they don't go anywhere," he said. "We waited a long time."

Trump confirmed that he "cancelled" the proposed meeting with Putin in Budapest because "it didn't feel right". "We'll do it in the future," he added.

Trump explained that the sanctions aimed to encourage Putin to do a deal with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to end the long-running war.

"Hopefully it'll push—hopefully he'll (Putin) become reasonable and hopefully Zelenskyy will be reasonable, too. You know, it takes two to tango, as they say."     

Moscow dismissed the likely impact of the ew sanctions, claiming that it was "immune" to them. Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president and prime minister, claimed that they were an "act of war".

"The US is our enemy, and their talkative 'peacemaker' has now fully embarked on the warpath with Russia," Medvedev, who is now deputy head of Russia's national security council, wrote on Telegram.

"The decisions taken are an act of war against Russia. And now Trump has fully aligned himself with loony Europe."

Honestly, every time I speak with Vladimir, I have good conversations, and then they don't go anywhere. We waited a long time

US President Donald Trump

Endurance test

Russia's ability to withstand a fresh round of sanctions will certainly be put to the test after the European Union announced that it was imposing a new sanctions package against Russian gas producers on Thursday, the 19th, since the start of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The bloc's foreign policy chief, Katja Kallas, said the measures were "meant to deprive Russia of the means to fund this war".

"We are also pleased about the signals we get from America on the sanctions regarding Russia. I think it is an important sign of strength that we are aligned here," she added.

In addition to the increased sanctions, there is increased speculation that Trump is giving serious consideration to providing Kyiv with long-range Tomahawk missiles. This move could dramatically enhance Ukraine's ability to attack targets deep inside Russia.

In recent months, Ukraine has intensified its attacks on key Russian infrastructure, attacking targets such as oil refineries that have resulted in petrol queues forming in Russian cities as the government struggles to maintain supplies. Supplying Ukraine with Tomahawks would enable the Ukrainian forces to strike targets deep within Russia, causing deeper economic hardship.

With the Russian economy already under severe pressure, and Russia's military offensive making minimal progress, there is a strong likelihood that, despite Moscow's claims to the contrary, the new measures taken by Trump could have a profound impact on Russia's war effort. 

If so, Putin could soon find that he has little option but to accept Trump's terms for ending the war in Ukraine.

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