Global public debt is projected to exceed 100% of global GDP by 2029—its highest level since 1948—and could reach 123% under an adverse scenario, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The IMF warns that rising debt and tightening financial conditions could trigger a fiscal-financial “doom loop” reminiscent of the 2010 European sovereign debt crisis.
Advanced economies such as the US, Japan, and major European countries already face debt ratios above 100% of GDP, while emerging markets, though less indebted, struggle with higher borrowing costs. Public debt in the US is expected to surpass 140% of GDP by 2029, while China’s could climb from 88% to 113%.
The IMF is urging countries to bolster fiscal buffers, bridge deficits, and undertake reforms to prepare for potential shocks and says that reducing debt and investing in education and infrastructure could enhance resilience and foster sustainable long-term growth.
