2. The peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan survived...but barely
These peace treaties have impressively proven their strategic resilience. However, had Israel succeeded in carrying out a second Nakba by pushing Palestinians in Gaza into the Sinai and/or annexing the West Bank, it is hard to imagine these treaties would have survived.
Israel's commitment to these peace agreements is no longer evident to Egypt and Jordan. Israel's readiness to take them for granted endangers their resilience and makes for a flimsy foundation for future ties.
3. Global patience with Israel is wearing thin
The French-Saudi initiative—which succeeded in garnering broad international support, including recognition of a Palestinian state by key countries that had not done so before—is vital. But ultimately, a two-state solution will need Israel's buy-in, and that is something that a vast majority of Israelis oppose. It is also something that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has sworn he won't let happen.
During Trump's grand ceremony celebrating the Gaza ceasefire and his Middle East Peace Plan in Sharm el-Sheikh, there was no mention of a plan for two states. But Israel must not be misled by the decoupling that many nations have adopted between their national interests and the Palestinian issue: the message is, "this is your problem," and the failure to solve it carries dangerous long-term consequences.
And as the world's patience wears thin, Israel could one day wake up and find itself totally isolated. The near-total walk-out of delegates during Netanyahu's United Nations speech last month provides a stark preview.
4. Israel's absolute dependence on the US is untenable in the long run
The Israeli-American strategic relationship has, over the years, created a situation where Israel has become totally dependent on the United States. This wasn't always the case, but today, Israel not only finds itself completely reliant on US support, but specifically on Republican support, the long-term implications of which are highly problematic.
5. Absent a responsible leadership, citizens must step up
The Palestinian "problem" is not one that can be wished away. Its resolution could lead to normalisation and integration with regional countries, instead of the status quo, where Israel largely stands alone.
But given the total absence of a responsible, brave, and far-sighted Israeli leadership, its citizens will need to forge a more realistic and responsible vision for themselves.
