Russian drones over Poland rattle NATO

A statement subsequently issued by the Kremlin insisted that "there had been no plans to target facilities on the territory of Poland" when Russia launched its latest attack on military-industrial targets in western Ukraine. In a bid to curb tensions, Russian officials said they were willing to discuss the incident with Poland.

Furious response

But Western leaders have nevertheless reacted angrily to the incursion, with suspicions running high that Moscow was deliberately seeking to test NATO's air defence capabilities in the area.

Tusk responded to the incident by claiming that his country was at its closest to being involved in a conflict since World War II.

"I have no reason to claim we're on the brink of war, but a line has been crossed, and it's incomparably more dangerous than before," the Polish premier told parliament. "This situation brings us the closest we have been to open conflict since World War II".

Russia's action also prompted strong condemnation from Warsaw's Western allies, with British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer denouncing what he called a  "barbaric attack on Ukraine and the egregious and unprecedented violation of Polish and NATO airspace by Russian drones".

US President Donald Trump was more quizzical in his response, posting on his Truth Social platform, "What's with Russia violating Poland's airspace with drones? Here we go!". 

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, meanwhile,  condemned Russia's "reckless behaviour" and said NATO allies stood in solidarity with Poland and Ukraine, while Defence ministers from the E5 group of nations—Italy, Germany, France, Poland and UK—held a press conference in London, and condemned the incident, during which the UK's Defence Minister John Healey said he has asked the British armed forces to "look at options to bolster" NATO's air defence over Poland.

While Poland has previously suffered from minor Russian incursions during the Ukraine conflict, this latest incident is by far the most serious, and will require both NATO and the wider international community to give serious consideration to the likely implications of Russia's action. 

Article 4

Apart from requesting that Article 4 of the NATO Treaty be invoked, Tusk is also calling on the wider international community to assess the implications of the incident. 

Under the terms of Article 4, NATO member states can consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territory, political independence or security of any of them is threatened.

Under Article 4, discussions at the North Atlantic Council —NATO's principal political decision-making body—could potentially lead to some form of joint decision or action.

Since NATO's creation in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked seven times, most recently in February 2022 when Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia sought consultations following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

In addition, Poland has requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council over the drone incursions. 

South Korea's UN mission, which holds the Council presidency this month, confirmed that a time for the meeting was being discussed. Apart from Poland, four other UN Security Council members have reportedly also asked for a meeting, according to Reuters news agency.

Capabilities upgrade

At the very least, the incident is likely to result in NATO undertaking a serious upgrade of its air defence capabilities both in Poland and other frontline member states with Russia. This is likely to include the deployment of extra warplanes, air defences and anti-drone technology.

NATO certainly appears willing to upgrade its defences, with Rutte directly warning Moscow that the transatlantic alliance was "ready" for further incursions.

"Our air defences are continually at the ready," Rutte told reporters in Brussels, after fighter jets shot down the Russian swarm. "My message is clear: stop the war in Ukraine ... stop violating allied airspace, and know that we stand ready, that we are vigilant and that we will defend every inch of NATO territory."

If, as many in the West believe, the Russian incursion of Polish airspace was undertaken to test NATO's defences, Russia may have found that, rather than exposing NATO's weakness, it has merely succeeded in strengthening NATO's resolve to defend its interests.