US envoy Tom Barrack and the ghost of Lawrence of Arabia

Trump laid out his Middle East vision in a speech delivered in Riyadh on 13 May. Heralding a "prosperous future" for the region, he condemned the failures of "nation-builders" who, in his words, "destroyed more countries than they built," while lamenting the trillions of dollars spent in Iraq and Afghanistan, where US interventions floundered in societies "we did not understand," often offering "lectures on how to live".

In contrast, Trump praised homegrown solutions and regional leadership. "The birth of the modern Middle East was the work of its own peoples," he said. This was a "great transformation" deserving recognition, he continued, as he endorsed Syria's interim President al-Sharaa, whose past he acknowledged, and whom he exempted—along with Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham—from sanctions, citing the need to "give Syria a chance".

A change of direction

Like Steve Witkoff—Trump's envoy for Iran, Gaza, and Ukraine—Barrack is a businessman with a direct personal connection to the president, operating outside the structures of the US State Department. His growing role in critical regional files has coincided with the sidelining of experienced diplomats.

Joel Rayburn, once slated to become Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, saw his appointment delayed, while others were removed entirely as part of a "comprehensive reform plan" led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Barrack's appointment as ambassador to Türkiye carries both symbolic and strategic weight. Officials in Ankara bristled at Brett McGurk, the former White House Middle East coordinator, dubbing him "the American Lawrence of Arabia," in reference to the British officer who championed the Arab Revolt against the Ottomans, because McGurk was seen as the architect of a Kurdish quasi-state in eastern Syria.

Trump's installation of Barrack in Ankara marked a clear departure from McGurk's policies, as seen in Barrack's comments on Syria, the Kurds, Lebanon, and the legacy of Sykes-Picot. His posture aligns closely with Turkish sensitivities. Trump has described Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as a "friend" and called for Israeli cooperation with Erdoğan over Syria, where tensions could easily flare.

Policy 'on the nod'

For decades, US policy in the Middle East has relied on tacit understandings and discreet arrangements with local regimes, many never formally acknowledged. The Syrian military's entry into Lebanon in 1976, Hafez al-Assad's crushing of Michel Aoun's uprising in 1990 (in exchange for help in Iraq), and the PLO's expulsion from Lebanon in 1982 all took place after an American nod (in forthcoming issues, Al Majalla will publish a series of confidential Syrian documents confirming that US officials sanctioned several key Syrian manoeuvres in Lebanon prior to the end of Syria's tutelage in 2005).

Barrack's mentions of "Greater Syria" and "Bilad al-Sham" are not just historical references. His ideas have a personal weight when you consider his family ties to Zahlé, part of the Ottoman Vilayet system before the Sykes-Picot borders created modern Lebanon and Syria. Coming from an official with Trump's ear, these mentions may signal a shift from rhetoric to policy.

While some of Barrack's remarks may have already been voiced in private meetings with senior regional leaders, translating such visions into reality will depend on shifting geopolitical balances—and success is by no means assured. American gambits in the Middle East often produce unintended consequences, and Trump's own impatience—coupled with his administration's aversion to prolonged military entanglement—may ultimately limit the reach of such ambitions.

In the Middle East, where maps are never merely lines on paper, the ghosts of old empires still linger. It remains to be seen whether Barrack's vision reflects a new strategy or just another chapter in a long history of foreign miscalculation.