Israeli and Iranian claims of victory ring hollow

More questions than answers

As things stand now, there seem to be more questions than answers. The ceasefire terms are ambiguous, as they do not include any binding commitments for either the warring parties or the mediating parties.

From Israel's standpoint, it is unclear why Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to halt hostilities, fully aware that Iran's nuclear programme is still intact—as indicated by US intelligence assessments—and that his goal of regime change was not realised?

Meanwhile, the unprecedented destruction inflicted on Israeli cities, coupled with the enormous financial cost accrued by the war—both direct, in terms of military expenditures, and indirect, through the disruption of economic activity and public life—is certain to carry political consequences that may not play in Netanyahu's favour, despite the wartime surge in public support.

Standing alone

From Iran's standpoint, it will be assessing the feasibility of maintaining its once-dominant regional role, given that Russia and China chose to remain on the sidelines of the conflict, leaving Iran isolated on the world stage. And although Israel's attack on Iran was met with widespread condemnation both regionally and internationally, this did little to counter Tehran's increasing isolation—a self-inflicted wound due to its own policies over the past five decades.

While it tried to position itself as a key player in the Islamic world, Iran has failed to cultivate enduring relationships with major powers. And in a telling sign of its declining regional influence, its regional allies—or proxies as its critics would call them—have been largely neutralised.

Despite years and sometimes decades of Iranian patronage, the militias it backed in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen were unable to join it in its war on Israel. The defiant rhetoric spewed by members of the faltering 'Axis of Resistance' failed to mask the strategic collapse that began with the catastrophic error of October 7, 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel.

So as matters stand now, declarations of victory by both Israel and Iran ring hollow. Netanyahu didn't get his wish of regime change as the Iranian people did not rise up against their government, and Iran stood alone in its fight against Israel alone, with its 'axis' choosing to sit out the war despite spending billions to arm and train its fighters.

In the end, it seems that Trump—or rather Trumpism, with its reliance on ambiguity, surprise, and impulsive decision-making—is the only obvious winner of this war