Tensions reach a boiling point as an IAEA report finds Tehran in breach of its nuclear obligations. Meanwhile, US personnel are ordered out of the region in a sign that escalation may be imminent.
REUTERS / Dado Ruvic
A 3D-printed miniature model depicting US President Donald Trump, Iranian and American flags in this illustration.
The announcement that the US is preparing to send home non-essential staff and families from its Middle East embassies is a telling sign that the Trump administration’s attempts to negotiate a new deal with Tehran have reached a critical juncture.
On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said US personnel were being moved out of the Middle East because "it could be a dangerous place." The decision comes amid fears that Israel may be planning to launch military strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities in the event of the Trump administration’s efforts to reach a new nuclear deal with Tehran reaching a dead end.
In the event of a possible Israeli strike and Iranian retaliation, Washington ordered the evacuation of the US Embassy in Baghdad, while other missions within range of Iranian missiles have been asked to provide risk assessments. Additionally, the United Kingdom Maritime and Trade Organisation issued a warning, urging vessels transiting the Arabian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Strait of Hormuz to exercise heightened caution out of fear that Iran could target international shipping.
The implementation of heightened security measures follows the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) 35-nation Board of Governors' declaration that Iran is in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in almost 20 years. This finding represents a dramatic escalation in the UN body’s long-standing dispute with Tehran over its nuclear activities.
The decision by members of the IAEA meeting in Vienna this week follows a damning report published by the organisation, which cited a general lack of “cooperation” from Iran, and raised concerns over secret activities and undeclared nuclear material.
The sudden escalation comes after Iran and the US were reportedly close to a nuclear framework deal that Israel found unacceptable
"The Board of Governors... finds that Iran's many failures to uphold its obligations since 2019 to provide the Agency with full and timely cooperation regarding undeclared nuclear material and activities at multiple undeclared locations in Iran ... constitutes non-compliance with its obligations under its Safeguards Agreement with the Agency," the text of the statement issued by the IAEA.
The governors demanded Iran provide answers "without delay" in a long-running investigation into uranium traces found at several locations that Tehran has failed to declare as nuclear sites. The IAEA has previously provided details of three previously undisclosed Iranian atomic sites where unexplained uranium traces have been found.
'Political decision'
Iran has dismissed the report, describing it as a "political" decision without technical or legal foundations. But tensions between the UN-sponsored body and Tehran have heightened in recent months over Iran's failure to provide the IAEA with credible explanations of how uranium traces detected at undeclared sites in Iran came to be there despite the agency having investigated the issue for years.
The IAEA has intensified its monitoring of Iran's nuclear activities in recent months as the Trump administration has attempted to reopen talks with Tehran with the aim of negotiating a new deal.
US President Donald Trump's decision in 2018 to withdraw from the nuclear deal agreed by former President Barack Obama resulted in Iran being subjected to punitive sanctions.
US President Donald Trump signs a document reinstating sanctions against Iran after announcing the US withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear deal, in the Diplomatic Reception Room at the White House in Washington, DC, on May 8, 2018.
In an attempt to break the impasse, Trump wrote a letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei earlier this year, offering to engage in direct talks to resolve the issue. And while Trump has stated on several occasions that he would not allow Tehran to acquire nuclear weapons, there have been concerns circulating in Washington in recent weeks that he might be tempted to agree to a "soft" deal with Tehran simply to resolve the issue once and for all.
This follows reports that Washington and Tehran might be close to closing on a framework that includes provisions about uranium enrichment that Israel, which is calling for the total dismantling of Iran's nuclear programme, views as unacceptable.
Indications that Trump is finally losing patience with Tehran emerged this week after he told a podcast that he was "less confident" about the prospects of a deal and accused Tehran of adopting a hard-line position.
The deepening tensions over Iran's nuclear activities, moreover, have increased significantly after Tehran responded to the IAEA's report by declaring that it will "significantly" increase its production of enriched uranium by launching a new enrichment site in a secure location.
Referring to the sophisticated centrifuges that can enrich uranium to weapons grade, a spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organisation said, "We are replacing all of these first-generation machines with sixth-generation advanced machines" at the Fordow uranium enrichment plant south of Tehran." This means "our production of enriched material will increase significantly," it added.
Iran nuclear sites
Iran is believed to have enriched uranium to at least 60%, putting it within "sprint" distance of a potential nuclear device. The latest estimates published by the IAEA suggest Tehran has sufficient quantities of enriched uranium to build ten nuclear warheads.
There are now considerable fears among Western security officials that Israel might decide to launch unilateral military action against Iran, with or without US support, if there is no breakthrough in negotiations to resolve the nuclear dispute.
Risk of all-out war
Such a move risks provoking all-out war in the Middle East, with Tehran insisting it already has plans in place to respond to an Israeli attack on the country's nuclear facilities, according to a senior Iranian official.
The official, speaking to The New York Times, said that the counterattack would be of a similar scope to the barrage it launched at Israel in October last year that included 200 ballistic missiles. The majority of rockets were intercepted, with the assistance of the US, although several managed to hit their targets.
The deepening crisis certainly places Trump in a difficult position. Having publicly declared that Iran should not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons, he has boxed himself into a tight corner where he cannot afford to stand idly by while the Iranians continue to develop enriched material that Western experts insist can only be used in the production of nuclear warheads.
