‘Children fighting in a park’ with drones and long-range bombers

Ukraine’s operation deep inside Russia this week means that Vladimir Putin now feels he must respond, “and it won’t be pretty”. For Donald Trump, peace is still possible, but not just yet.

‘Children fighting in a park’ with drones and long-range bombers

Any lingering hopes US President Donald Trump may have entertained of bringing the Ukraine war to an early conclusion will have been dispelled by his latest phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week.

Although fighting continues, hopes had steadily been building in Washington that a breakthrough might yet be possible in the Trump administration’s efforts to end the war with the resumption of peace talks in Istanbul earlier this week.

Even though expectations were low, with both sides still deeply divided on how to end a war that has been raging since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the fact that they were meeting face-to-face had offered hope.

Horns still locked

Although the talks—which lasted for about an hour—ended without a breakthrough, progress was made towards arranging a prisoner swap. The two sides committed to returning the bodies of 12,000 soldiers and agreed to exchange all sick and heavily wounded prisoners of war, plus all those aged under 25.

Ukrainian negotiators said Russia had again rejected an “unconditional ceasefire,” one of the key demands being made by Kyiv and its allies in Europe and the US. The Russian team said it had proposed a two- or three-day truce “in certain areas” of the vast frontline but gave no further details.

Key issues remain, including Russia’s continued occupation of 20% of Ukrainian territory, but had there been any serious momentum towards resolving them, this would have been undermined by the Ukrainians launching one of their most daring and deadly attacks against Russia on Sunday.

A spider’s web

Using smuggled drones piloted from Ukraine, Kyiv attacked four Russian airbases—including one located thousands of kilometres away—destroying or damaging around 40 Russian long-range bombers and Moscow’s all-important surveillance aircraft.

Russia again rejected an unconditional ceasefire, a key demand of Kyiv and its allies, instead proposing a 2-3 day truce "in certain areas"

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that 117 drones had been used in Operation Spider's Web by the country's SBU security service, striking 34% of Russia's strategic cruise missile carriers". The SBU told the BBC it had been 18 months in the planning. The drones were hidden in wooden mobile cabins, with remotely operated roofs on trucks, and brought near the airbases "at the right time".

Russia confirmed Ukrainian attacks in five regions, calling them "terrorism". Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Ukrainian government's centre for counteracting disinformation, said at least 13 Russian aircraft were destroyed and others damaged. Zelenskyy congratulated SBU head Vasyl Maliuk on the "absolutely brilliant result".

Hours later, a Russian drone and missile attack on Ukraine killed six people, including a seven-year-old child. With that backdrop, the Ukrainian and Russian teams met in Istanbul. It is understandable why more progress was not made.

A lot of hatred

As Trump conceded following his latest telephone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Moscow feels it now needs to respond, "and it won't be pretty". Trump acknowledged that "there's a lot of hatred" between Ukraine and Russia but remained optimistic that Washington could help end the war. The Kremin declined to comment on its plans, but said "all options are on the table".

Trump conceded following his latest telephone call to Putin that Moscow feels it now needs to respond, "and it won't be pretty"

Trump told Putin that the US had not been warned of Ukraine's drone attack, Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov confirmed. According to Russia's state-owned RIA Novosti news agency, Putin accused Ukraine of trying to "disrupt" the negotiations, saying Kyiv had "essentially turned into a terrorist organisation".

For Trump and Putin, there is a desire to "restore cooperation" between the two countries, but first the war in Ukraine has to end, and the failure of the talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials presents Trump with a dilemma, after he suggested new sanctions against Russia if Putin did not agree to a ceasefire.

US officials are said to be looking at ways to impose secondary sanctions against countries like India and China that continue to trade with Russia. Such a move could inflict further damage on the Russian economy. But given that it was Ukraine, not Russia, that escalated things this week, Trump—who is known to value his personal relationship with Putin—may yet change his mind.

Regardless, it seems a long time since Trump said he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. What next? "Sometimes you see two young children fighting in the park," he said on Monday, at a press conference with the German chancellor. "Sometimes you're better off letting them fight more before you pull them apart."

font change