The true purpose of Gaza’s new aid mechanism doomed to fail

Asking the starving people of Gaza to shuffle the distance to aid distribution centres to get food every day is simply not tenable, so hundreds of thousands of people are likely to come to live near them, to stay within reach. No-one would blame them or expect any different. It is the logical next step.

That is why the concentration of humanitarian aid activities in southern Gaza within the new Israeli mechanism cannot be viewed separately from Israel's plan to squeeze Gazans into a small space in the south.

Netanyahu has praised US President Donald Trump's plan to take control of Gaza, relocate its people to other countries, and build a "Middle East Riviera". The Israeli prime minister described this as "revolutionary", and in late May, made the implementation of this plan a condition for ending the war.

The new GHF aid centres therefore act as bait for those who might otherwise have refused to leave their homes, effectively forcing around two million people into a tiny spit of land in the south-west of the Strip.

Malfunctioning system

Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, wants to see the new aid mechanism stall, because its creation was designed to end the group's longstanding control over the supply of food.

This explains why Hamas included a condition in the new ceasefire proposal advanced by US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff that humanitarian aid distribution in Gaza be managed by the UN, as it was before October 2023.

A malfunctioning GHF aid distribution system lets Egypt push its own Gaza humanitarian aid effort and revives its plan for the reconstruction of the Palestinian territory, a plan that envisages its people staying in Gaza.

Since October 2023, Egypt has invested huge efforts diplomatically to prevent the spillover of Gazans into Egypt, a plan initially favoured by Israel but dismissed as a 'red line' by Cairo.

Egypt became less able to distribute food aid to the Palestinians of Gaza once Israel occupied the Gaza-side of the Rafah crossing in May last year. This stopped aid entering through Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, where tens of thousands of tonnes of aid have piled up.

Opportunity for Egypt

If Egypt were to return to lead the Gaza aid effort, it would ensure the delivery of sufficient amounts of food and prevent aid from being politicised or weaponised. This is crucial as Gaza fight for their own survival and the future of their territory.

Meanwhile, in the face of Israel's desire to keep the war raging, Egypt's $53bn plan for the reconstruction of Gaza has faded from view, despite being approved by the Arab world. If the GHF fails, as seems likely, Egypt's plan may be dusted off in haste.

There appears to have been a gap emerge between Trump and Netanyahu on Gaza in recent days. If so, that is an opportunity to convince Trump that Israel's far-right government will do nothing but imperil regional security and harm American interests.

It would be naïve to think that Trump and Netanyahu did not see eye-to-eye on most things, but in several areas—such as Iran—the US president is showing that he will pursue his own path, even if Netanyahu objects.

If Trump really wants to re-establish American power in the Middle East and convince Arab allies that he has leverage, he could do worse that follow his own path on Gaza's aid distribution, to the benefit of two million starving people.