Almost a decade ago, as I visited an embassy in Israel to brief diplomats on the security situation in the Middle East, my colleague and I were asked if we believed the Houthis posed a threat to Israel. We were taken aback by the question at the time, as they were generally viewed as a backwater group busy fighting against their domestic enemies in Yemen.
How things have changed.
On Sunday, 4 May 2025, a long-range ballistic missile launched by the Iran-backed group in Yemen struck near Israel's Ben Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv, causing an explosion and triggering air raid sirens across central Israel. This incident marked a significant event in the ongoing conflict between the Houthis and Israel, leading to temporary halts in flights by several international airlines. While the missile did not directly hit any aircraft and caused only minor damage, injuring a small number of people, the fact that it reached the premises of Israel's main airport is a stunning success for the Houthis.
Although Israel’s early-warning systems identified the missile as it approached and two interceptors were launched, both the Arrow and the THAAD systems failed to destroy it before it hit, marking the third failure to intercept a missile fired from Yemen. And while the combination of Israeli and US air defence systems generally works well, the latest attack shows that some missiles do end up getting through.
The reasons for the failure are still being investigated: The Houthis appear to be testing several parameters to see when and how to maximise the chances of successfully striking Israel. For their part, the Houthis said the missile was new and of a higher calibre, but Israel has denied this. One possibility being investigated is that part of the missile was hit, but its warhead was not.
To be clear, this is not the first time the Houthis have launched attacks specifically at the Ben Gurion airport. The group has claimed, on multiple occasions, that it was targeting the airport. In March this year, the group claimed to have launched three separate attacks against Ben Gurion, boasting that at least one had hit the international airport.
In response to the attack, Israel launched a series of strikes targeting the Yemeni port of Hodeidah and the Sana’a international airport, with Netanyahu promising more retribution to come.
Limits to air warfare
However, the Houthis are proving to be a stubborn adversary to both Israel and the US. Although a campaign of air strikes by the US has led to a noticeable reduction in Houthi attacks, both against Israel and particularly against shipping, stopping those attacks altogether would likely require a ground offensive.
For its part, Israel has routinely hit Houthi-controlled infrastructure and responded to the latest Houthi attack by shutting down the Sana’a airport through a series of strikes that destroyed three civilian planes. But such strikes—no matter how fierce—are unlikely to force the group to stand down.
A more effective campaign would require a land attack of the kind that was seen at the height of the Yemen civil war, when groups affiliated with the internationally-recognised Yemeni government launched a successful offensive towards Hodeidah. However, the charge was called off after international pressure tied to real concerns over the possibility that the offensive would disrupt the flow of aid (which enters Yemen primarily through Hodeidah) intensified.
Short of a ground offensive, there is little Israel can actually do to stop Houthi attacks, apart from ending its war and siege on Gaza, as the group has stated on multiple occasions. More targeted strikes on Houthi leadership, for instance (of the kind Israel has carried out against Hezbollah), would require intelligence gathering and tracking efforts, which are needed to monitor more pressing threats posed by Hamas and progress on Iran’s nuclear programme.
US-Houthi ceasefire
Piling upon those difficulties is the newly unveiled “ceasefire” between the US and the Houthis. Just minutes after Israel launched a series of new strikes in Yemen, President Trump announced that he had ordered the US military to stand down, as the Houthis had allegedly agreed to a ceasefire.
The Houthis have not confirmed— and some officials even appear to deny Trump’s claim—but Oman, which has been a key mediator both when it comes to the Houthis and Iran, announced that a ceasefire had been brokered that would see a halt to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea in exchange for a suspension of US strikes.
The surprise announcement during a press conference between Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump blindsided Israel, especially because no mention was made, either by Trump or Oman, of a possible suspension of Houthi attacks against Israel, nor is it clear whether this would represent a breach of the ceasefire.
Although the fact that Israel wasn’t mentioned could be an attempt not to force the Houthis to acknowledge that they agreed to stop attacks against Israel, given how unexpected the news was, the latter possibility (that Trump is leaving Israel dry) cannot be ruled out.
If the agreement solely focuses on the Red Sea, this will be viewed as a setback for Israel. Attacks against the shipping had effectively stopped over the past months, possibly as a result of the extended and widening US campaign of strikes against the Houthis, and the fact that the group was focusing most of its attention on Israel proper. The suspension also means the Houthis will remain a threat in the near future, and could easily resume attacks against shipping whenever it is convenient for them.
