Like it or not, the end of Iran's ‘axis’ is near

Tehran’s web of alliances and influence spun through the Middle East was supposed to counter Israel and the US in the region. Instead, Tel Aviv looks stronger as the axis falls apart.

Like it or not, the end of Iran's ‘axis’ is near

The term “axis of resistance” emerged in 2001, largely in response to US President George W. Bush’s dubbing of Iran, Iraq and North Korea (and later Cuba, Libya and Syria) as the “Axis of Evil”. But the concept actually dates back to the early days of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution.

At the time, the nascent regime unveiled a string of “revolutionary” stances as part of its strategic vision for the region. Chief among them was rhetorical support for the Palestinian cause and its vow to “wipe Israel off the map”—the end objective being to end American influence in the region.

The storming of the US embassy in Tehran not even a year after the revolution demonstrated a willingness to back up its words with action and was quickly followed up by a promise from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to "form an army of 20 million (Muslims and Arabs) to liberate Jerusalem" from Israeli occupation. These popular stances drew in supporters in the region—from states to political parties and movements.

A decades-long investment

Iran then went to work to shore up allies in the region. The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which emerged after Israel’s multiple invasions of Lebanon beginning in the late 70s, emerged as Iran’s star child. It heavily invested in the group, training, arming, and financing over the next decades.

Iran’s strength was buoyed by the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, which toppled its longtime enemy, Saddam Hussein. It exploited the security vacuum that emerged there to recruit Iraqi Shiite militias, and in 2011, it bolstered its military presence in Syria to shield its longtime ally, the Assad regime, from anti-government protests, which later morphed into a civil war. In this same period, it also upped its support to the Houthis in Yemen, allowing the group to seize the capital, Sanaa.

For all its bold talk, Iran's response to Hamas's call for a "unity of arenas" to confront Israel was very timid

It united its regional allies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen under the 'axis of resistance' umbrella—a coalition that wielded formidable power in the past ten years. Overseeing this alliance was Iranian Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani, who played a pivotal role in synchronising and directing this force.

Picked apart

But in 2020, US President Donald Trump ordered his assassination while he was visiting Baghdad, dealing a devastating blow to the 'axis'. After that, more and more Revolutionary Guard leaders were assassinated in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, gradually chipping away at Iran's regional influence and dashing its hopes to reap the economic gains of rebuilding Syria after its brutal decade-long civil war.

But the most devastating blow to the 'axis' came in the aftermath of Hamas's October 7 attack on Israel. Although Iran claimed ignorance and said it played no role in its planning and execution, Israel was unconvinced. Backed by the US, it waged a sweeping military campaign against the 'axis', launching strikes on its allies in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. The two foes also traded direct blows for the first time in their history.

But for all its bold talk, Iran's response to Hamas's call for a "unity of arenas" to confront Israel was very timid. Hezbollah inflicted very minimal damage to Israel, which in "response" decapitated its leadership, killed thousands of Lebanese and destroyed large swathes of the country. Israel succeeded in taking out Hezbollah's top brass leadership, including its popular, charismatic leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was arguably the most public-facing leader of the 'axis'.

At the time, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's response to the assassination was that Hezbollah was "too strong to be shaken by Israel", but didn't mention Nasrallah by name. This strange response unnerved Hezbollah, sparking rumours that Iran had either abandoned the group or sacrificed Nasrallah in a bid to avoid further direct attacks by Israel.

In the end, Iran's revolutionary slogans were nothing more than hot air that brought only death and destruction to the region

The next devastating blow to the 'axis' was the abrupt and unexpected collapse of the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus—Iran's key state ally in the region. In just ten short days, the Assad regime, which had ruled over Syria for more than half a century, crumbled, throwing yet another wrench into Iran's regional influence.

Incalculable losses

As things currently stand, Israel has practically wiped out Syria's military arsenal after the fall of al-Assad, Hezbollah's power has considerably waned in Lebanon, and the US has launched punishing air strikes on the Houthis in Yemen. At the same time, it is threatening Iran with decisive strikes on its nuclear facilities against the backdrop of strengthened international sanctions.

And in Gaza, where it all started, the situation is increasingly apocalyptic. With more than 50,000 killed, the Strip lies in complete ruin, with no end in sight to the bloodshed.

In the end, Iran's revolutionary slogans were nothing more than hot air that brought only death and destruction to the region. Instead of advancing the interests of our people, it seems to have done more to strengthen Israel's position, which is telling.

It is against this backdrop that Iran is currently negotiating with the US in Oman in a desperate attempt to salvage what remains of its influence. Like it or not, the end of the 'axis' is near.

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