Ukraine ceasefire hinges on Moscow's conditions and Kyiv's concessions

Rubio was accompanied for the talks by US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Trump's personal Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, who then flew to Moscow to outline the terms of the ceasefire agreement to the Russians. The Ukrainian delegation at the Jeddah talks comprised Andriy Yermak, chief of staff to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha and Defence Minister Rustem Umerov.

Trump praised the outcome of the talks, remarking that, "Ukraine has agreed to it, and hopefully Russia will agree to it. I'll talk to Vladimir Putin. It takes two to tango."

Remarkable achievement

The ceasefire breakthrough is certainly a remarkable achievement in view of the tensions that had developed between Zelenskyy and Trump during their heated exchange during their meeting at the White House last month, which resulted in Trump cutting military aid to Ukraine, and suspending intelligence sharing.

The dramatic bust up between the two leaders, which raised concerns that the Trump administration would end US support for Ukraine's war effort, prompted a frantic round of diplomatic activity that resulted in Zelenskyy writing a personal letter to Trump indicating that he was willing to engage in ceasefire talks. His overture received a positive response from Trump, which resulted in the convening of the talks in Saudi Arabia, which ultimately succeeded in achieving the ceasefire breakthrough.

Soon after the deal was announced in Jeddah, the Trump administration confirmed that it would immediately lift the pause in intelligence sharing and resume military support for Kyiv. In return, Ukraine has agreed to accept American proposals for the immediate introduction of a temporary 30-day ceasefire that can be extended by mutual agreement, subject to acceptance and simultaneous implementation by Russia.

But while the deal agreed in Saudi Arabia marks a significant breakthrough in efforts to bring hostilities in Ukraine to an end, many of the key issues, such as Kyiv's demand for the return of all its territory that has been occupied by Russia—including Crimea —have still to be ironed out.

Zelenskyy had previously ruled out agreeing to any ceasefire agreement that includes giving up land occupied by Russia. Instead the Ukrainians are insisting on a "just peace", one that would result in the Kremlin paying punitive war reparations. Although the Trump administration has made it clear that it expects Kyiv to make territorial concessions if a long-term peace deal is to be agreed, the issue of territorial concessions is understood not to have been raised during the Jeddah talks.

Eyes on Moscow

Following the successful conclusion of the talks, the focus now will be on Putin, and whether he has any long-term interest in pursuing peace talks at a time when Russian forces are gaining ground in their three-year military campaign in Ukraine.

Within hours of the ceasefire deal being announced in Saudi Arabia, the Russians responded by launching a missile attack on Zelenskyy's home town in Ukraine, killing a woman and injuring nine civilians.

When Witkoff flew to Moscow to outline the terms of the ceasefire agreement, Putin, dressed in combat fatigues, made a point of visiting Russian soldiers fighting in the country's southern Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces succeeded in capturing territory in a surprise offensive in August.

"I am counting on the fact that all the combat tasks facing our units will be fulfilled, and the territory of the Kursk region will soon be completely liberated from the enemy," Putin said in remarks broadcast on Russian-owned state television.

Prior to entering talks with Witkoff, Russia presented the US with a list of demands for a deal to end the war in Ukraine. These included Moscow's long-standing demand that Ukraine is not granted membership of NATO, an agreement not to deploy foreign troops in Ukraine and international recognition of Crimea and four Ukrainian provinces as Russian territory.

The demands made by the Kremlin certainly suggest that, even if Russia does agree to a ceasefire, doubts remain as to whether Putin has any genuine interest in negotiating a peace deal that finally brings this long-running conflict to an end.