Competing visions for a post-war Gaza

The cyclical nature of the conflict and Israel’s occupation continue to shape regional and international outlooks

AFP

Palestinians gather for a communal iftar, or fast-breaking meal, on the first day of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, amid building rubble in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on March 1, 2025.

Competing visions for a post-war Gaza

Ahmed Maher

last update on 03 Mar 2025

In previous Gaza wars, reconstruction often became synonymous with temporary solutions rather than sustainable development. The most basic needs and aspirations of the population—after more than 16 months of a genocidal war launched by Israel following Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel—are dependent on how regional and international stakeholders want Gaza to look like after the war stops.

Several plans have been floated for a post-war Gaza. Among them are an Egyptian plan, a rare Fatah-Hamas plan, Trump’s widely-condemned plan to turn the Strip into the “Riviera in the Middle East”, and an Israeli plan that apparently aims to scuttle a joint Arab effort to counter Trump’s unrealistic proposal.

The challenge of rebuilding Gaza is compounded by the fact that it remains under draconian Israeli blockade and occupation—one that extends beyond military presence; encompassing control over borders, airspace, and essential resources, creating an environment of profound instability and dependency. The Israeli blockade, imposed since 2007, has severely restricted the flow of goods, including construction materials, medical supplies, and food—all necessary things for rebuilding and sustaining life.

With each passing war, there is less appetite from donors to fund reconstruction, given the cyclical nature of Israeli bombardment and the grinding political stalemate. Many donors hesitate to commit large sums for reconstruction efforts that Israel will just destroy again in the future. This has led to a growing Arab consensus that Hamas should not run Gaza after the war.

Bashar TALEB / AFP — Israeli hostage Omer Shem Tov, flanked by Palestinian Hamas fighters, smiles after being released along with two others as part of the seventh hostage-prisoner exchange, in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip, on February 22, 2025.

Egyptian plan

The Egyptian plan—which state-run media outlets have leaked details of—seems to be the Arab consensus strategy. It is centred on the establishment of a technocrat Palestinian administration with no affiliation to Hamas or the Palestinian Authority. This entity would be responsible for governing the Strip and overseeing reconstruction efforts.

A Palestinian police force comprising mainly of former PA policemen—who remained in Gaza after Hamas took control of the strip in 2007—would oversee security with reinforcements trained by Egypt and the West. Under this plan, reconstruction would be implemented in three phases over the course of five years.

Additionally, three “safe zones” would be carved out inside Gaza to resettle Palestinians during the initial six-month “early recovery period.” The zones would be equipped with mobile homes and shelters, with humanitarian aid flowing in. More than 20 Egyptian and international companies would be involved in clearing the rubble and rebuilding the Strip’s infrastructure.

While on the surface, the idea of creating safe zones is surely welcomed as it would provide much-needed shelter and security for civilians displaced and traumatised by Israel’s war on Gaza, this would largely depend on cooperation between Israel and Hamas, which still maintains a significant military and political presence.

Without a 360 approach that reconciles Israel's security concerns with humanitarian imperatives, the prospect for meaningful reconstruction in Gaza remains bleak

But perhaps the most important aspect of the plan is that it would allow Palestinians to stay in Gaza and not be displaced. Trump's plan has largely been seen as an attempt to ethnically cleanse Palestinians from their land.

For their part, Egypt and Jordan have already rejected Trump's plan. And after doubling down on said plan several times, the US president appeared to walk back his comments in an interview with Fox News Radio last week, saying that the plan was just an idea and wouldn't be forced on anyone.

Perhaps he began to understand it would lead to widespread unrest in Gaza, Israel and the broader region if implemented. But he later posted a deranged AI-generated video on his Truth Social platform showing what 'Trump Gaza' could look like—further muddying the waters over what his true intentions are,

Fatah-Hamas plan

In December, there was a very rare Fatah-Hamas declaration after talks held in Cairo where the rival groups agreed to form a committee to manage the Gaza Strip at the end of the war in coordination with the Palestinian government. Under this plan, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas would "issue a presidential decree to appoint this committee after he approves the draft agreement." This committee would comprise 10 to 15 national figures with relevant competencies, recognised for their integrity, experience and transparency."

But the feasibility of this plan seems far-fetched, given the bitter rivalry between the two groups since Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007. This fragmented the Palestinian political landscape, with each faction governing different territories (Fatah in what's left from the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Hamas in what's left from the Israeli-occupied Gaza). Their longstanding rivalry has made it next to impossible to come up with a coordinated political strategy for the Palestinian people and their quest for self-determination.

Omar AL-QATTAA / AFP — A man raises the Palestinian flag as he watches the return of displaced people to northern Gaza via the Netzarim Corridor.

That said, increased international scrutiny and the need for a unified Palestinian front might compel them to reconcile. The urgent need for post-conflict reconstruction and humanitarian assistance in Gaza could necessitate cooperation between the two factions. Both parties seem to recognise that a divided front could hinder recovery efforts and limit access to international aid.

Israel's plan

Despite the abundance of plans, Israel seems to be sending the message that nothing can be decided for Gaza without its approval. The Guardian reported that the Israeli military has presented the UN and aid organisations with a post-war plan to run the Gaza Strip through "tighter control." The plan reportedly does not mention the withdrawal of its forces from Gaza, as stipulated by the ceasefire agreement reached between both parties.

Sources from aid organisations who spoke to the British newspaper said that representatives from the Israeli army would distribute supplies through "tightly managed logistics hubs" to vetted recipients in the Gaza Strip. These so-called humanitarian hubs would be gradually expanded and could be secured by private security contractors in areas under full Israeli army control. According to the planned framework, all non-governmental organisations allowed to operate in Gaza would have to be registered in Israel and have their staff vetted.

In conclusion, Gaza reconstruction and aid relief will depend on the political considerations of each stakeholder. What is clear is that the endless cycle of violence and Israel's occupation remain key obstacles to reconstruction. Without a 360 approach that reconciles Israel's security concerns with humanitarian imperatives, the prospect for meaningful reconstruction in Gaza remains bleak, which will just lead to a perpetual cycle of violence and misery.

+ / -