Trump gets the diplomatic ball to end the Ukraine war rolling

Western anxiety

Western leaders are anxious that Trump's decision to engage with Putin without demanding any pre-conditions will simply encourage the Russian leader in the belief that his controversial invasion of neighbouring Ukraine will ultimately pay dividends.

Certainly, the early indications from the Trump administration concerning the likely nature of any future peace deal to end the Ukraine war do not make for easy reading for the Ukrainians, who have fought a long and costly battle to defend their territory.

Two of the key demands set out by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for ending hostilities were that Russia first withdraw all its forces from Ukrainian territory captured since 2014—including the strategically important Crimean peninsula as well—and NATO agrees to admit Kyiv to the alliance. But neither of these key demands is likely to be met, according to the Trump administration's briefings following the talks with Putin.

Trump told reporters at the White House that it was unlikely Ukraine would return to its pre-2014 borders although he did suggest "some of that land will come back" without giving any further details.

The president also said he agreed with comments previously made by Pete Hegseth, his newly-appointed Defence Secretary, who told a NATO summit in Brussels earlier on Wednesday that there was no realistic likelihood of Ukraine joining the military alliance. Speaking at a defence summit in Brussels, Hegseth said it was "unrealistic" to expect Ukraine to return to its pre-2014 borders and downplayed the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO.

Signalling a drastic shift in Washington's position on the war, Hegseth warned that the US would no longer "tolerate an imbalanced relationship" with its allies and called on NATO members to spend much more on defence, while European nations must provide the "overwhelming" share of funding for Ukraine.

The Trump administration's willingness to engage with Putin on Ukraine stands in stark contrast to the position of the previous Biden administration, which provided billions of dollars of military aid to Ukraine following Russia's invasion in February 2022 and called for Putin's removal as Russian leader.

'Not a betrayal'

The Trump administration's unwillingness to support Ukraine's key demands for ending the conflicts has also led to accusations that the White House is preparing to betray the Ukrainian cause in return for ending hostilities, prompting Hegseth to insist that Trump's call with Putin was "not a betrayal" of Ukraine.

Even so, concerns among many leading European countries, including Britain, that have supported Ukraine's war effort prompted them to insist that they be part of any future negotiations on Ukraine's fate.

"Our shared objectives should be to put Ukraine in a position of strength," said a joint statement released by seven European countries after a meeting of foreign ministers in Paris. "Ukraine and Europe must be part of any negotiations," the statement read and called for strong security guarantees for Ukraine.

As for Ukraine, Zelensky tried to put a brave face on the outcome of the first contact between Trump and Putin, insisting that his own call with the US leader, which took place after the president's conversation with Putin, had been a "good and detailed discussion" on a variety of issues.

"No one wants peace more than Ukraine. Together with the US, we are charting our next steps to stop Russian aggression and ensure a lasting, reliable peace," Zelensky wrote. "We agreed to maintain further contact and plan upcoming meetings."

Ukraine will certainly be hoping that the one factor that could work in Kyiv's favour is that Trump will want a deal that makes him look good and will not want the world to conclude that he has rewarded Putin for launching his invasion of Ukraine. Apart from requiring Ukraine to make concessions, Trump will also expect Moscow to give ground in any future peace deal.

There is also an awareness within the Trump administration that Russia remains a threat to European security, which, given America's extensive trade and military investment in the continent, could jeopardise its interests in the event of increased tensions between Moscow and the rest of Europe.

So, while Trump's conversation with Putin has set the diplomatic ball rolling to end the Ukraine conflict, much work still needs to be done before the outline of a lasting peace settlement can be reached.