Developments in Syria and Lebanon go far beyond the mere toppling of regimes or the unseating of power bases. They mark a significant (and wholly unforeseen) historical shift, not least in Syria, where the Assad family has ruled for 55 years.
Taken in isolation, these transformations would be noteworthy enough, but taken together, they have fundamentally altered the Middle East’s political landscape, a landscape once shaped and sculpted by Iranian influence. Furthermore, the changes are ongoing. They could easily extend to Iraq in the coming months.
In Syria, the transformation has been as seismic as it has (so far) been smooth. This makes it an outlier. Compare the relatively simple process of deposing Bashar al-Assad to 2011 and all the violence of the ‘Arab Spring’ driven by sectarianism, identity politics, and vengeance that convulsed Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Tunisia and elsewhere.
Given the suffering and anger of Syrians—and given the authoritarian and oppressive nature of the Assad regime—this makes it even more unusual. While there were instances of vindictive behaviour and regrettable incidents, they were isolated. The collective spirit of Syrians and those who assumed power was quite the contrary.
Instead of vengeance, there was a widespread sense of relief among most Syrians—and Lebanese—at being freed from the strictures of the previous regime. However, this relief was tempered by anxiety over an uncertain future. This was understandable, given the bitter lessons of the past.
Foreign influence
The ease of the Syrian transformation exposed how hollow the regime had become, and how deep-seated its flaws were. It highlighted how regime change could have occurred years earlier, were it not for the intervention of Assad’s foreign allies—Russia, Iran, and Iran’s chief proxy, Hezbollah.
