France faces an uncertain 2025 after experiencing a politically turbulent year and a series of setbacks on the international stage. Although it hosted two spectacular events—the Olympics and the reopening of the Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris, reminding the world of its longstanding soft power reputation—it was also one of the most difficult years France experienced.
In June, President Emanuel Macron called for snap elections after populist parties triumphed and extreme left-wing groups gained traction in the European Parliament election—a vote that had a ripple effect across the EU, particularly in France and Germany, the EU's two biggest members.
France's far-right Rassemblement National, or the National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, emerged as the winners of the first round of the domestic parliamentary election. However, tactical voting in the second round and alliances between centrists and traditional parties of the left pushed the National Rally into third place. For its part, left-wing Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise movement or France Unbowed also gained traction.
A parliament divided into three blocs with no clear majority produced a spate of weak governments, including the one of short-lived prime minister Michel Barnier, which lost a vote of confidence in December and collapsed. In total, there were four administrations, including the most recent one of François Bayrou. The last time France had such a high government turnover was in 1934.
The roots of this political crisis can be traced back to the beginning of Emmanuel Macron’s first term in 2017, which reshaped the political landscape at the expense of traditional forces and heralded the rise of extremes on both the right and left. It worsened after Macron’s gamble to dissolve parliament backfired. Rather than restoring balance and stability to the political scene, it deepened divisions and fragmentation, resulting in further deadlock and stagnation.
International setbacks
In addition to its domestic political troubles, France has also been hit by setbacks on the world stage, where it saw its geopolitical influence wane—particularly in Africa.
On 31 December, the Ivory Coast’s President Alassane Ouattara announced that French forces would leave his country in January. It followed a similar move from Chad earlier in 2024 and added to a wider French withdrawal from the Sahel region, including Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. France’s military profile in Africa is now reduced to a symbolic presence in Gabon and a combat unit in Djibouti.
In 2017, Macron gave a speech in the capital of Burkina Faso, Ouagadougou, where he tried to distance himself from France's colonial past, vowing to work with Africans as partners. But a continuation of heavy military deployments, a poor counter-terrorism track record, and mismanaged responses to military coups contributed to France's growing unpopularity on the continent.
But France's mistakes are not the sole reason for its decline. Another big reason is the rise of Global South nations. For example, African countries had other rising powers to turn to—namely Russia and China—making their decision to kick French forces out much easier.
Events in the Middle East have also shed light on France’s diminished role on the world stage. In Lebanon, a former French mandate, its efforts to rehabilitate Lebanon's political class and engage in dialogue with Iran and Hezbollah fell flat.
What next?
Despite its high debt burden and 5 million unemployed, France remains the world’s seventh-biggest economy—renowned for industries from aerospace to luxury goods. Last year, it proved it could not only function during political chaos but also score major soft power achievements.
How will the country fare in 2025? Well, that depends on the choices French politicians make in the coming months. Will they put the nation first or will they fall back into political posturing ahead of parliamentary elections later this year?
