The promise and peril of Syria’s National Dialogue conference

The proposed agenda includes critical topics such as drafting a new constitution, dissolving parliament, forming a transitional government, and preparing for national elections. Al-Sharaa has hinted that decisions will be made through a voting process. Initially planned for early January, the conference has been postponed to allow for the formation of an expanded preparatory committee purportedly to ensure comprehensive representation from all segments and governorates of Syria.

Despite these assurances, significant concerns remain about the lack of transparency regarding the conference's timing, framework, goals, and procedures. Questions persist: Who is selecting the preparatory committee? On what basis are members being chosen? What mechanisms are in place to ensure inclusivity and accountability? These unanswered questions cast serious doubt on the process, fueling fears that HTS could leverage its dominant position to control the agenda and manipulate outcomes.

Challenges to genuine representation

The lack of transparency in planning the conference is particularly troubling. Reports suggest that invitations will be extended to individuals rather than political blocs or organised groups, with representation allocated based on geographic quotas. While this approach ostensibly aims to achieve regional balance, it raises critical questions about how invitees will be selected and what criteria will guide their inclusion.

This ambiguity stokes fears that HTS could handpick participants aligned with its vision, sidelining voices that challenge its dominance. By inviting individuals tied to traditional religious and social structures—long accustomed to operating under authoritarian rule—the organisers risk creating a facade of inclusivity while marginalising independent voices.

Even if technocrats, civil society representatives, and unaffiliated participants are included, their influence could still be diluted if the process is designed to entrench existing power dynamics. The result may be a conference that projects the appearance of diversity while failing to deliver meaningful debate or accountability.

The lack of clear mechanisms to ensure fairness only deepens these concerns. Without guarantees of legitimacy and inclusivity, the conference risks alienating the very people it aims to represent, undermining the broader goal of national reconciliation.

Charting a path forward

The National Dialogue Conference presents a rare opportunity to redefine Syria's future, but its success hinges on addressing three critical issues: transparency, inclusivity, and accountability.

First, transparency must be prioritised. Syrians deserve to know how decisions are made, who is participating, and what measures are in place to ensure fairness. Public visibility is essential to building trust in both the process and its outcomes.

Second, the conference must actively engage the wider population, not just those present in the room. Local dialogues and public consultations should feed into the national discussion, creating a bridge between grassroots voices and formal decision-making. This approach would help ensure that the dialogue reflects the diverse aspirations of Syria's people.

Additionally, foundational decisions—such as the constitution, governance model, and other pivotal issues—must not be resolved through simple majority votes. Instead, these matters require consensus to prevent any one group from unilaterally determining the nation's trajectory. Consensus-based decision-making is essential to fostering trust and unity among Syria's fragmented communities.

Finally, robust accountability mechanisms must be established to ensure that participants uphold the outcomes of the dialogue. Without safeguards, there is a significant risk that powerful actors will co-opt the process for their own gain, undermining broader democratic aspirations.

After more than a decade of devastating conflict, Syrians have sacrificed too much to settle for a hollow exercise in political theatre. The National Dialogue must deliver tangible steps toward democracy and inclusivity rather than serve as a pretext for consolidating power. Anything less would betray the aspirations of a nation yearning for peace, justice, and self-determination.

While the process must remain Syrian-led, regional and international stakeholders have a crucial role to play. They must advocate for greater transparency and inclusivity, ensuring that the conference becomes a genuine step toward reconciliation and stability rather than another chapter in Syria's history of missed opportunities.

To achieve this, international actors must move beyond generic statements of support and start asking detailed, pointed questions about the process and the measures in place to guarantee fairness and inclusivity.

For Syria to move forward, the National Dialogue must transcend rhetoric and deliver on its promises. Anything less risks squandering a historic opportunity to build a democratic future, condemning the nation to yet another cycle of authoritarianism and despair.