There is suppressed anger within Hezbollah’s support base over delayed compensation, with the party now suggesting that the onus rests with the Lebanese state
Israel’s recent war against Hezbollah in Lebanon remains a big test of the party’s support base, which bore the brunt and burden of the assault that destroyed huge areas across southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and Beirut’s southern suburbs.
Hundreds of thousands of families were displaced, and many lost their livelihoods. Now, as the ceasefire appears to be holding, cries from those affected by the fighting are growing louder, given Hezbollah’s unfulfilled promises of compensation.
Like many of its population centres, Lebanon’s economic reality is a scene of devastation—one that prevents those affected by war from rebuilding their lives. For most, aid has not been forthcoming. As a result, there is a growing sense of frustration and disillusionment within Hezbollah’s support base.
'No one is helping'
Abu Ali, a Lebanese citizen from the southern city of Tyre and one of the victims of the Israeli bombing, says he no longer expects any compensation. “I’ve entrusted my fate to God alone,” he told Al Majalla.
Like many of its population centres, Lebanon's economic reality is a scene of devastation, one that prevents those affected by war from rebuilding their lives
"My house was completely destroyed. The sports club I own suffered significant damage to most of its equipment, including the glass and sauna room. It is $4,000 to $5,000 of losses, in addition to the loss of my home."
He said he had received no compensation from anyone. "They all come to inspect, record the information, then leave. When we follow up, they say, 'Wait for your names to be called.' So, I began repairing the damage to the club at my own expense to resume operations, and rented a house in Tyre and started furnishing it—also on my own expense."
The same applies to Abu Hussein, who has also had no compensation. "No amount will ever make up for the losses we endured," he says. Before the war, he planned to send his son to study at a European university, relying on rental income from properties and businesses he owned in his border village, Aita Al-Shab. But during the war, he lost everything, including his own home.
Like others, he was displaced twice during the war, which meant that he had been hit twice by high rental prices. "I reached a point where I had to ask my expatriate friends for money," he says. "I once owned properties and had plans for my family's future. This is what the war has brought us."
Arguing over who pays
After the war, Hezbollah's Secretary-General Naim Qassem said the party would compensate those affected by the war, offering $8,000 for refurbishing homes that had been completely destroyed.
A woman and her daughter walk through the rubble following Israeli raids on the southern suburb of Beirut, on November 29, 2024.
Residents of Beirut or its southern suburbs would get $6,000 to cover a year's rent, while those living outside Beirut would get $4,000. There have been significant delays, however, with Hezbollah now seeking to ease the pressure by shifting the responsibility for reconstruction to the Lebanese state.
Qassem's statement angered his supporters, who were promised in July by his late predecessor, Hassan Nasrallah, that their homes would be rebuilt better than before. "We assure our people in southern Lebanon that we'll rebuild our homes to restore them as they were and even better," said Nasrallah.
Economist Sami Nader said this begged the question as to whether the state was responsible for paying compensation, despite not having made the decision to go to war.
"Yes, the affected are Lebanese citizens, and the state has responsibility for them, but we can't ignore the fact that Hezbollah alone decided to start the war, made the decision to end it, and accepted the conditions of the ceasefire. It bears responsibility for what happened, so it must shoulder the burdens and consequences."
In 2006, after Hezbollah's previous war with Israel, Hezbollah "directly carried part of the burden, alongside the state, which also received international and Arab aid," said Nader.
"Today, the circumstances are different. Lebanon lacks the support and aid to begin reconstruction. Its economic situation is far worse than it was in 2006. Back then, the state's revenues were $11bn annually. Today, they barely exceed $1.5bn. Therefore, the state is incapable of shouldering the burden of reconstruction."
A man smokes a water pipe amid the rubble of a building targeted by the Israeli army in the city of Nabatieh, southern Lebanon, on December 4, 2024.
Hezbollah's empty coffers
Hezbollah would not be able to fulfil its compensation promises due to the closure of supply routes through Syria and the targeting of its financial reserves and funding sources, he said. "This will undoubtedly impact the level of support it enjoys, especially given that the party's base has been, and continues to be, significantly affected."
Economist Nassib Ghobril concurred that Hezbollah could not match its promises and that, anyway, "offering up to $14,000 per family in rent and household furniture doesn't cover the cost of rebuilding the destroyed buildings".
Ghobril said: "Reconstruction requires large sums of money that Hezbollah can't secure, and neither can Iran, which, if it intends to assist, as it's announced, must do so strictly through the legitimate financial system, official channels, and with transparency, while adhering to the international sanctions in place."
Dr Layal Mansour, a lecturer in economics at the Lebanese American University (LAU), said Hezbollah's reconstruction promises "remain far from reality". She said: "This war was a conflict between technology and ideology, and in the end, technology triumphed.
"Hezbollah didn't have the tools to win the war because Israel outperformed it technologically, and it no longer has the material means for reconstruction, especially with the severe economic decline Iran is experiencing and the collapse of its currency."
She noted that the party previously managed to attract support through financial incentives. "However, with funding dwindling and its militant influence eroded by the war, it's been left with only political speeches of promises for its audience."
A Lebanese army soldier walks through a destroyed neighborhood following Israeli raids on the Lebanese village of Khiam, December 23, 2024.
Calculating the cost
Following the ceasefire, different official and unofficial bodies estimated the extent of the damage and its cost, but these vary wildly, and their accuracy is questioned. "The numbers circulating are more opinions than scientific reports," said Ghobril.
"In 2006, a direct damage assessment was carried out, with losses estimated at $3.6bn. This time, this hasn't happened. There are still villages along the border strip that are inaccessible due to Israeli operations. The extent of the damage in these areas remains unknown. Nearly 40 villages have been completely destroyed."
The material losses from this war far exceed those from 2006 due to the intensity of the bombardment and prolonged duration, he said. "In addition to the direct material losses, there are economic losses from damaged factories, businesses, and shops, and a decline in tourism, consumption, and investment."
In 2023, the Lebanese economy performed relatively well during the first nine months before the war on Gaza, he said, with growth forecasts of 2%. "After the war, growth dropped to 1%. For 2024, expectations for growth were 3%, but the war led to a 6-7% contraction, so the economy has lost 9-10% of expected growth."
Two women stand next to burning vehicles following Israeli raids on the capital, Beirut, October 11, 2024.
Financing challenges
Funding for reconstruction in Lebanon is likely to be forthcoming only after radical political and economic reforms that could reposition Lebanon within the Arab fold.
"In light of the severe economic crisis Lebanon is facing, the state won't be able to secure the billions needed for reconstruction, nor will the banking sector be able to support it as it did during the 2006 war," said Ghobril.
"Lebanon won't be able to obtain internal or external funding for reconstruction due to the failure to implement the necessary reforms and address public debt. The government has done what it can, offering measures such as tax exemptions for affected businesses and buildings, but it can't offer more than that.
"Even the World Bank has advised Lebanon to rely on grants to begin reconstruction, noting that it has informed Lebanon about the possibility of redirecting part of the loans designated for specific projects to the reconstruction effort.
"However, these amounts are limited and insufficient. Therefore, any funding for reconstruction requires Lebanon to mend its international and Arab relations, reconnect with multilateral institutions like the International Monetary Fund, and implement the necessary reforms to regain support."
Funding for reconstruction requires Lebanon to mend its international relations, reconnect with the IMF, and implement the necessary reforms
Economist Nassib Ghobril
Road to rebuilding
Lebanon must rebuild its political institutions by electing a president and forming a government, control the borders, combat tax and customs evasion, halt the smuggling of drugs to neighbouring states, and establish the rule of law, he argued. "Only then will the new executive branch be able to present a reconstruction plan, identify funding sources, and work to revive the economy."
Mansour said: "Most countries can't finance reconstruction on their own, so they resort to political and geopolitical settlements with international powers to secure the necessary support. Often, concessions are made in exchange for a share of profits or investments related to the reconstruction. This is something Lebanon must consider."
She said Lebanon needed not just a ceasefire but a political change to give it stability, but that "the main challenge lies in Hezbollah's presence as an armed force that dominates state decision-making… If it continues with its current policies and holds onto its weapons, it will lead to Lebanon's international isolation and deprive it of major powers' support for reconstruction... which is tied to a settlement".
Mansour said: "Lebanon cannot be rebuilt without a long-term political solution between Israel and Hezbollah… which requires Hezbollah to halt its illegal activities, that have prevented Lebanon from improving its international relations and attracting support, with Hezbollah being classified as a terrorist organisation in many countries."
UN Humanitarian Coordinator Imran Redha examines the devastation in the city of Nabatieh following Israeli raids on southern Lebanon, December 4, 2024.
Suppressed anger
In private, discontent over compensation within Hezbollah's support base is growing, albeit cautiously, through social media and WhatsApp groups made up of people from the same neighbourhoods or buildings.
Nizar Murtada—a resident from southern Lebanon who is familiar with the compensation process—said there had been "internal cries from the affected individuals themselves, but they try to avoid expressing these publicly out of fear of being accused of treason or threatened with the loss of their compensation".
Public demands "could be interpreted as weakening the role of the resistance movement, which has led to anger being confined to private discussions or limited protests", he said. "The party uses the narrative of 'steadfastness and resistance' to keep its supporters loyal, but it faces practical difficulties in providing aid due to financial restrictions, particularly with the decline in external support compared to previous years.
"Discussions of grand reconstruction plans often serve more to calm the public than as clear, executable plans, as compensation hasn't been adequately disbursed, and people are living in a state of anticipation and disappointment, relying on their own resources or community aid.
"The greatest outcry is in the Bekaa Valley, where residents are experiencing clear neglect, as priority is given to southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut, given that they're Hezbollah's political and popular strongholds."
