Global energy demand in this year’s WOO is set to expand by 24% in the period to 2050, driven by significant expansion in the non-OECD region. The outlook sees the need for an expansion in all energy sources, with the exception of coal. For oil alone, we see demand reaching over 120 million barrels per day by 2050, with the potential for it to be higher. There is no peak oil demand on the horizon. Around 30% of non-OECD growth comes from India alone.
Big shifts in the energy mix are seen throughout the outlook period, but oil and gas are set to remain crucial for energy supply in the period to 2050, which means that the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas bears no relation to fact. Their combined share in the energy mix is expected to stay above 53% throughout the outlook period. Oil retains the largest share at 29.3% in 2050, with gas at 24%.
A realistic view of demand growth expectations necessitates adequate investments in oil and gas today, tomorrow, and for many decades into the future. For oil alone, investment requirements out to 2050 total $17.4tn.
The long-term outlook for the energy sector remains uncertain. The challenge of how to balance sustainable, equitable development with much-needed energy affordability and energy security while at the same time addressing climate concerns has led to much debate and polarisation among key stakeholders.
