Politics

Israel’s actions in Syria are part of its regional ambitions

Destroying most of Syria’s defence assets, Tel Aviv has left its northern neighbour vulnerable to the same instability that followed the dissolution of the Iraqi army. That suits Netanyahu nicely

Ammar Awad / Reuters

Waving the flag adopted by the new Syrian rulers, as people celebrate the ousting of Bashar al-Assad from Damascus.

Israel’s actions in Syria are part of its regional ambitions

Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy

last update on 02 Jan 2025

Finally, Syria is free. Its people are able to determine their own future for the first time in nearly half a century. But can the new authorities regain control of Syrian territory, or will Damascus struggle in the same way Bashar al-Assad did in later years?

To the south, Israeli troops are now in a formerly demilitarised zone, the Americans still have a presence in the east, while to the north Turkish forces remain ensconced. While the Syrian people may have control of Damascus, vast swathes of Syrian territory are still controlled by others.

Of the interlopers, Israel is the most recent, and is perhaps the biggest cause for concern, given that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that he intends to reshape the Middle East to better suit Israeli interests. What are his plans?

Territory and assets

Under the guise of removing actual, potential, or concocted threats, he has taken military action in Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria. It is a policy that has no regard for peaceful relations with neighbours.

It started in Gaza, which is now virtually uninhabitable and vulnerable to open-ended Israeli control, including settlement. After pressure from Washington, Israel then modified its plans for southern Lebanon, but still wants to create a buffer zone along the border, leaving the door open for future Israeli military intervention in the state.

In Syria, Israel exploited the collapse of the Syrian army, declared that a 1974 disengagement agreement was no longer valid, and occupied the Syrian territory in which United Nations (UNDOF) observers are stationed, in clear violation of that agreement.

To the south is Israel, whose troops have made their way into a formerly demilitarised zone, while to the north, Turkish forces are still ensconced

According to the Institute of the Studies for War, the Israeli army advanced beyond the disengagement zone. More importantly, it has occupied Mt Hermon. Within 40km of Damascus, it now enjoys a military vantage point over the area with all its topographical advantages.

As if territorial conquest was not enough, Israeli jets launched around 480 attacks in 48 hours, destroying roughly three quarters of all Syrian military assets, including planes, drones, tanks, air-defence systems, weapons plants, and missiles. The Israelis also attacked the ports of al-Bayda and Latakia, destroying 15 Syrian naval vessels and dozens of anti-ship missiles with ranges of up to 190km.

Learning from Iraq

After the United States and allies removed Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq, Saddam's state institutions were also dismantled. As leader of the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) in Iraq from 2003-04, career diplomat Paul Bremer made the dissolution of the Iraqi army one of his first tasks. The resulting instability is still having effects today.

Delil Souleiman / AFP — An American military vehicle takes part in a patrol in Syria's north-eastern Hasakeh city on 30 December 2024.

With those memories fresh in the mind, there is near universal agreement on the need to preserve state institutions in Syria, including the army, but Israel's actions go far beyond what even Bremer did, since he at least preserved what remained of Iraq's military hardware.

Not content with the wholesale dispersal of Syrian military personnel, Israel destroyed most of the army's capabilities. It stands to reason that without a professional national army, Syria is now vulnerable to the ambitions of armed groups. This creates both internal and cross-border dangers.

Israel exploited the collapse of the Syrian army, declared a 1974 disengagement agreement invalid, and occupied Syrian territory

It will take years for the Syrian army to be reformed and for it to be able to discharge its normal functions, most notably, to defend Syria's borders.

Netanyahu justified Israel's territorial encroachment and its destruction of Syrian state assets as a means of preventing terrorists from occupying the land and deploying defence equipment against Israel. This is somewhat rich, given reports of links between Islamist extremist groups and Israel.

Capability and intent

Ultimately, and despite its professed concerns about Syria becoming a jihadist state, it does not matter to Tel Aviv who governs Damascus—it only cares about Syria's military capabilities. While most states determine external threats as 'capability plus intent', Israel chooses to interpret threats solely based on capability. This assumes hostility, whether that assumption is warranted or not.

Aaref Watad / AFP — Barrel bomb munitions on the tarmac at the Syrian military base of Istamo in Latakia province in western Syria on 29 December 2024.

All this fits with Israel's military doctrine of maintaining a 'qualitative edge' i.e. that for Israel to be safe, it must at all times maintain military superiority over the capabilities of any combination of countries in the Middle East.

To complicate matters further, Israel's decimation of the Syrian army gives Türkiye more reason to maintain its military control of northern Syria. Ankara denies that it has any designs on Syrian territory, but will not relinquish control of these areas until it knows that Syria's army can take over from it.

Yet with the Syrian army now splintered, it is clearly incapable of controlling its side of the 900km Syria-Türkiye border anytime soon.

Israel's plan is to be undisputed regional military hegemon, with neighbours variously fragmented, weak, crisis-ridden, and/or subservient to Israeli interests. Israeli military control of southern Syria is part of that.

Combined with Türkiye's military presence in Syria's north, and Syria's east largely controlled by US-supported Kurds, it is difficult to see how Damascus achieves the free, sovereign, and independent state that the Syrian people have sacrificed so much to win.

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