In 2024, decades happened in weeks. What will happen in 2025?

The day before, on 30 July, Israel killed senior Hezbollah military commander Fouad Shukr in Beirut. Israeli intelligence said Shukr was a key figure in the transfer of Iranian guidance systems for Hezbollah's missiles, and training by Iran's elite Quds Force.

His killing was followed by a wave of assassinations, strikes, and security breaches, culminating in the assassination of Hezbollah's long-serving and influential Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah on 27 September.

Days earlier, the group's communication devices—most notably, the pagers it used—exploded in a coordinated Israeli intelligence coup that killed several and injured hundreds. Most agreed that it was unlike anything ever seen, and meant that Hezbollah had been completely compromised.

Fighting on all fronts

Days later, using the momentum, Israel launched a ground offensive in southern Lebanon, while maintaining its relentless bombardment of Hezbollah sites and strongholds from the air. 

Israel continued to eliminate Hezbollah's military and political leadership, including Nasrallah's presumed successor, Hashem Safieddine, while in Gaza on 16 October, Israeli forces got lucky when they stumbled upon Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in an operation. Dressed in military fatigues and carrying an AK-47, he had been involved in house-to-house combat when a tank fired on his team.

Just over a week later, on 26 October, Israel launched three waves of strikes against 20 locations in Iran, Iraq, and Syria. It was the largest attack on Iran since the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s and was conducted partly in response to an Iranian attack on Israel on 1 October, when Tehran fired around 200 ballistic missiles, most of which were intercepted.

Since July, Israel has also attacked Houthi sites in Yemen, the Iran-backed militia having been launching missiles and drones against Israel since Tel Aviv began bombing Gaza in October 2023. As a result, Israel found itself in conflict on an unprecedented seven fronts: Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, the West Bank, Gaza, Yemen, and Iran. Analysts struggled to understand the new reality. It felt as if virtually every 'red line' had now been crossed. 

Fireworks in America

In Washington, meanwhile, all eyes were on the US presidential election, won in the end by Donald Trump, who returns to the White House for his second term later this month, just weeks after defending himself in court on myriad charges. 

Monumental and historic milestones in the Middle East were paralleled by Trump's extraordinary win, a political comeback unlike anything ever seen in American history. Adding to the drama was Trump's near miss when an assassin's bullet grazed his ear.

The election also confirmed America's stridently right-wing lurch. The Republicans now control Congress—both the Senate and the House of Representatives—while six out of the nine US Supreme Court judges are conservative. 

In the weeks since his win, Trump has waded into the Ukraine war, and stoked tensions with China and others on trade. As the year drew to a close, journalists were worn out from the relentless developments. The public, blitzed by harrowing images, videos, and updates throughout 2024, also seemed to need a break. But more was to follow.

Syria and the future

Out of nowhere, in early December, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled Damascus and his regime collapsed, ending half a century of Assad family rule. Its end came quickly, when well-organised fighters led by Idlib-based Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) swept away Assad's demoralised army, who barely put up a fight. HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa had given the Syrian people the release they had fought for since 2011.

It was a long-awaited moment—countless Syrians have shed blood over the past 14 years—but it was not predicted. Events unfolded suddenly, as city after city fell. It left Syrians and others scrambling to interpret and adapt to this monumental shift. One of the more obvious effects was that Iran's regional strategy now lay in tatters, while Russia rapidly emptied its two military bases in Syria. 

There are decades where nothing happens, and weeks where decades happen. The latter half of 2024 certainly falls into the latter category. It also leaves so many questions as we march into 2025. What now for Gaza? Is there any prospect of a Palestinian state? How will Lebanon rebuild? How will Iran respond? What will the new Syria look like? And what will Trump do? If 2025 is anything like 2024, hold on tight.