Is 2025 the year Ukraine and Russia settle? It depends on the cost

In November, Biden lifted restrictions on the use of long-range US missiles provided to Ukraine to conduct attacks deep within Russian territory, which the Ukrainians say is vital to their ability to resist Russian attacks.

Biden lifted the restrictions following pleas from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who argued that Russia had escalated the conflict significantly by deploying 15,000 North Korean troops on the battlefield.

There are now concerns in Kyiv that Trump will re-impose the restrictions once he takes office, thereby limiting the ability of Ukrainian forces to withstand further Russian attacks, and scale down US support for Ukraine, as he instead concentrates his efforts on ending the conflict.

Working up a plan

Trump will get support from his fellow Republicans, who will control both the House of Representatives and the Senate, and who share his reservations about maintaining US support at its current level.

The Trump team is reported to be working on an outline peace proposal for ending the war, with advisers—including retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg—suggesting that Ukraine be forced to the table by threats of cutting off US aid. 

Also mooted was a 20-year freeze on Ukraine's bid to become a member of the NATO alliance, and the deployment of a European peacekeeping force composed of British and European troops in eastern Ukraine.

Trump has not been specific about his peace plan but now concedes that ending the war in Ukraine could prove more difficult than solving the Middle East conflict.

Yet while he remains committed to negotiating a settlement, he also insists that he has no intention of abandoning the Ukrainian cause by forcing Kyiv to give up territory seized by Russian forces. "I want to reach an agreement, and the only way you're going to reach an agreement is not to abandon (your allies)," Trump said.

Comes down to NATO

Zelensky has made NATO membership a key part of his own peace proposals as he seeks to persuade the West to provide credible security guarantees against any future acts of Russian aggression. But membership will be fiercely opposed by Putin, and contentious for some major Western powers.

Apart from concerns that Ukraine's governmental structures fall far short of the standards required for NATO membership, Western leaders are reluctant to provide the Ukrainians with the vital Article Five security guarantee that commits them to help Kyiv militarily if Russia attacks it again. 

Such a move could provoke all-out war between Russia and NATO, raising the prospect of a nuclear confrontation, but membership is clearly key. The Kremlin justified its invasion of Ukraine by arguing that it had to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO (even though there were no plans for that to happen).

Sergei Lavrov, the country's long-standing foreign minister, has been critical of proposals floated by Trump's team, while denying that Moscow had any details.

"We are not happy, of course, with the proposals made by members of the Trump team to postpone Ukraine's admission to NATO for 20 years and to station British and European peacekeeping forces in Ukraine," he said. 

Lavrov called for "reliable and legally binding agreements that would eliminate the root causes of the conflict and seal a mechanism precluding the possibility of their violation".

Facts on the ground

With Trump's stated desire to end hostilities in Ukraine, both sides in the conflict are intensifying their efforts to gain an advantage in the run-up to talks, hoping that this will strengthen their hand in negotiations.

On Christmas Day, Russia launched a major attack against Ukrainian infrastructure energy system, which Zelensky described as "inhuman".

At the same time, the Ukrainians are still inflicting mass casualties on Russian forces, especially against units seeking to recapture territory in the Kursk region captured by Ukrainian forces during a surprise attack in August.

This led North Korean soldiers to bolster Russia's war effort, but they too have suffered mass casualties, with 1,000 of their troops killed or wounded in recent days alone, according to White House spokesperson John Kirby.

"Russian and North Korean military leaders are treating these troops as expendable and ordering them on hopeless assaults against Ukrainian defences," Kirby said, describing the North Koreans' offensive as "massed, dismounted assaults".

The momentum of the Ukraine conflict may be moving towards a peace settlement once Trump takes office, but there is no guarantee that talks will result in a lasting resolution of this conflict. He will need to be at his deal-making best if this war is to end in 2025.