In Damascus, Iran’s waning influence is exposed

Voices from Tehran have been alone in seeking to stoke civil war after the fall of Assad, as a 45-year ambition to export the Iranian revolution lies in ruins

In Damascus, Iran’s waning influence is exposed

Writing from Damascus, the world’s oldest continuously inhabited capital, it feels necessary to honour the memory of the hundreds of thousands of Syrians who made the ultimate sacrifice so the country could arrive at this moment of opportunity.

They endured torture and often gave their lives for our collective freedoms, including the freedom to think and write without fear. They died in the fight for Syria to be returned to its people.

When Bashar al-Assad took flight, with him flew the illusion that Syria was trapped for eternity. His departure also signalled the end of Iran’s expansionist ambitions in the region, almost 45 years after Tehran declared its intention to export its revolution, which in effect meant occupation through other means.

Jewel in the crown

Syria was crucial to Iran’s regional strategy. It served as its most important connection point, the key to the Mediterranean, a corridor for arms smuggling, a hub for the production of drugs sold across the Middle East, and a platform for threatening neighbouring countries.

Iran was never likely to surrender this loss of influence without resistance, but its grip on other allies has suddenly loosened, with Israel having dealt such a decisive blow to Hezbollah’s leadership and military capabilities.

Frustrated, and seeking solace from its losses, Iran has resorted to fomenting sectarian tensions and inciting civil war in Syria. The most significant threat came from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. During a religious gathering in Tehran, when he predicted the emergence of a “noble and strong group” in Syria.

He urged “the brave youth of Syria” to overthrow the interim government, adding: “Syrian youth have nothing to lose. Their universities, schools, homes, and entire lives are unsafe, so what can they do? They must stand with strong willpower against those who planned and executed this state of insecurity, and they will overcome them, God willing.”

Stoking division

Prior to Khamenei’s remarks, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Abbas Araghchi issued a more cautious statement, urging those celebrating Syria’s victory to “wait and see what happens, as there are many future developments”.

Frustrated, and seeking solace from its losses, Iran has resorted to fomenting sectarian tensions and inciting civil war in Syria

Simultaneously, Mohsen Rezaee, a prominent member of Iran's powerful Expediency Discernment Council, said Syrian resistance "will be revived in less than a year". These comments were followed by videos and statements from groups and individuals linked to Assad's regime, claiming to speak on behalf of the Alawite sect. 

The comments include calls for an amnesty for those responsible for massacres and atrocities since 2011. Yet talk of an amnesty only deepens the anguish of thousands of families still searching for missing loved ones. It is as if they were made specifically to stoke division.

Read more: Blood-curdling tales emerge from Assad's torture dungeons

Such incitement threatens Syria's internal security, and for the country's interim leaders, who are actively seeking those guilty of Assad-era crimes, rhetoric that could spark a civil war is unwelcome. Yet this is exactly what Iran wants to happen.

Showing restraint

Acts of revenge by Syrians who suffered so profoundly at the hands of the regime were largely expected, yet despite some isolated incidents, wholesale or collective acts of retribution and vengeance have not yet materialised. 

This restraint highlights the critical importance of justice and accountability as the most effective means of preserving civil peace. Adherence to these principles is necessary to prevent the turmoil sought by Iran and Khamenei. 

Calls for an amnesty for perpetrators of massacres and atrocities only deepen the anguish of families still searching for missing loved ones

Tehran's strategy is to incite sectarian division and derail the transition process before it even really begins. This would let it shape negotiations to its advantage, securing strategic gains in Syria during the post-Assad era.

The stakes are high. In some ways, Iran's loss in Syria is greater even than Assad's own, for while the deposed dictator used Syria as his personal fiefdom and a source of wealth and power (even if it meant killing a million people and displacing half the population), for Iran, a 45-year project has just collapsed, leaving its regional strategy in tatters. 

In Syria, security is key to rebuilding the state, so disarming the militias and apprehending the perpetrators of Assad-era crimes (regardless of their sect) are essential steps to a political transition and the establishment of a democratic state.

Syrians' long-cherished aspiration takes us back to those who made the ultimate sacrifice, but whose deaths ultimately culminated in the overthrow Assad and the liberation of Syria from Iranian occupation. Now is their time. 

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